NAIROBI, Kenya- It’s not every day that you see Kenya’s top political figures—once bitter rivals—rally behind the same cause.
But that’s exactly what’s happening as President William Ruto, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, and at least 100 MPs gear up for a trip to Addis Ababa.
Their mission is to back Raila Odinga in his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.
With the AU Summit set for February 15 and 16, this is more than just a diplomatic exercise—it’s a political spectacle with massive implications.
Over 100 MPs will be accompanying President Ruto and PCS Mudavadi to Addis Ababa to support former PM Raila Odinga’s AUC bid.
The Stakes: A Win for Raila is a Win for Ruto?
For Ruto, a Raila victory would be a political jackpot. It would not only boost Kenya’s influence on the continent but could also reshape Kenya’s political landscape.
A triumphant Raila at the AU would:
- Solidify Ruto’s diplomatic clout, proving his ability to deliver results internationally.
- Potentially weaken Raila’s presence in Kenyan politics, giving Ruto an advantage ahead of 2027 elections.
- Help Ruto gain support from Raila’s traditional strongholds, cushioning him from any fallout after the recent impeachment of DP Rigathi Gachagua.
But if Raila loses, the equation flips. Ruto’s gamble could backfire, and Raila—now 80—could return to the local political ring, either to challenge Ruto or to endorse a younger ODM candidate for 2027.
Either way, it wouldn’t be good news for the president.
How Strong Are Raila’s Chances?
On paper, Raila is the frontrunner. His opponents—Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato—lack his name recognition.
But AU elections are never that straightforward.
- Raila needs 33 votes out of 49 to win in the first round.
- If no candidate hits that mark, a second round is held, and the candidate with the highest votes wins.
- Raila’s team claims to have secured endorsements from 28 countries, including Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana, Senegal, and Zambia.
Despite these numbers, geopolitical maneuvering could still sway the outcome.
Countries that pledged support aren’t legally bound to vote for Raila, meaning last-minute surprises are always possible.
Kenya’s VIPs Take Over Addis
This isn’t just a Raila moment—it’s a full Kenyan takeover of Addis Ababa. Lawmakers across party lines are making the trip, with many even scrambling for recommendation letters to facilitate travel.
As Raila and his delegation depart for Addis on February 12, the political world will be watching. His 27-country campaign tour has been exhaustive, and his team exudes confidence.
But in AU elections, nothing is guaranteed. The difference between victory and defeat often comes down to the final moments of negotiation.
If Raila clinches the seat, it will be a monumental win for both him and Ruto. If he loses, Kenyan politics is about to get a whole lot messier.
