NAIROBI, Kenya – The climate cost of the first two years of Russia’s war on Ukraine has surpassed the annual greenhouse gas emissions of 175 individual countries, intensifying the global climate crisis alongside the significant loss of life and widespread destruction, a new study reveals.
Russia’s invasion has generated at least 175 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e).
This surge in emissions stems from direct warfare, landscape fires, rerouted flights, forced migration, and military attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure, according to the most comprehensive analysis of conflict-driven climate impacts conducted by the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War (IGGAW). The future carbon cost of reconstruction is also included in this staggering total.
The 175 million tons of emissions comprise carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), the latter being the most potent of all greenhouse gases.
To put this into perspective, these emissions are equivalent to running 90 million petrol cars for an entire year, surpassing the annual emissions of countries like the Netherlands, Venezuela, and Kuwait in 2022.
Historically, the climate cost of war has been poorly accounted for by governments, largely due to military secrecy and limited access for researchers.
Official data is sparse or nonexistent, and the broader economic costs of these greenhouse gases, which have global ramifications, remain poorly understood.
The new report by IGGAW, a research collective partially funded by the German and Swedish governments and the European Climate Foundation, estimates that the Russian Federation faces a $32 billion (£25 billion) climate reparations bill from its first 24 months of the war.
This calculation is based on a recent peer-reviewed study that valued the social cost of carbon at $185 per ton of greenhouse gas emissions.
Lennard de Klerk, the lead author of the report, emphasized the global impact: “Russia is harming Ukraine but also our climate. This ‘conflict carbon’ is significant and will be felt worldwide. The Russian Federation should be made to pay for this, a debt it owes Ukraine and countries in the global south that will suffer most from climate damage.”
Russia’s deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure, particularly in the initial months of the war, caused significant leaks of potent greenhouse gases.
The destruction of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, for example, released approximately 14 million tCO2e.
The displacement of millions of Ukrainians and Russians has further contributed to transport-related emissions.
Ruslan Strilets, Ukraine’s Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, highlighted the importance of this analysis: “The report provides the most up-to-date and thorough snapshot of the climate consequences of Russia’s invasion, helping to lift the fog of war on environmental costs. It will be a crucial part of the reparations case against Russia.”
Currently, only four countries submit incomplete military emissions data to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Given that militaries account for almost 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually – more than the aviation and shipping industries combined – there is an urgent need for international agreement on measuring and addressing conflict-related emissions.
“The new monetary estimate of climate damage underscores the critical role of greenhouse gas emissions accounting for conflicts,” said Linsey Cottrell, an environmental policy officer at the Conflict and Environment Observatory. “We urgently need international consensus on how to measure and address military emissions.”
