NAIROBI, Kenya — African countries, including Kenya and South Africa, are increasingly seeking fuel supply deals with Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote as fears grow over a potential shortage triggered by escalating conflict in the Middle East.
According to Bloomberg, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has emerged as a critical alternative supplier as global oil supply chains face disruption.
Governments across the continent are now racing to secure allocations from the facility amid rising uncertainty in key oil-producing regions.
The refinery, Africa’s largest, has seen a surge in demand from multiple countries, including Kenya and South Africa, all seeking to cushion themselves against a possible energy crisis.
However, its output—estimated at about 650,000 barrels per day—remains insufficient to fully meet continental demand, with roughly 75pc reserved for domestic consumption in Nigeria.
This leaves limited volumes for export, forcing countries to compete for the remaining supply. Several governments have already initiated talks to secure fuel shipments, highlighting growing anxiety over future availability.
Dangote, in remarks to The Economist, said the main challenge is no longer pricing but supply constraints, as demand continues to outpace production capacity.
In Kenya, early signs of strain are already emerging. Industry players report sporadic rationing of petrol and diesel, while some distributors have temporarily run out of stock, raising concerns about possible disruptions if delayed imports fail to arrive.
Martin Chomba, chairperson of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, said the effects are more pronounced in rural areas, where several filling stations have shut down due to stockouts.
Kenya consumes approximately 100,000 barrels of fuel per day, all imported through Mombasa. Current regulations require importers to maintain reserves equivalent to 21 days of consumption, leaving the country exposed to global supply shocks.
The situation is further complicated by rising geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic corridor that handles about 21 per cent of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption in the strait would directly affect shipments from Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—key suppliers under Kenya’s government-to-government fuel import framework.
Despite mounting concerns, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has maintained that fuel prices will remain unchanged for the March–April pricing cycle. In Nairobi, Super Petrol is retailing at Sh178.28 per litre, Diesel at Sh166.54, and Kerosene at Sh152.78.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has sought to reassure the public, stating that Kenya holds adequate fuel reserves and that there is no immediate risk of a nationwide shortage.
