NAIROBI, Kenya — Kenya is among several countries in the Greater Horn of Africa expected to experience above-average rainfall during the March to May (MAM) 2026 long rains season, according to the latest regional climate outlook by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The forecast, released on Tuesday after the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) held in Nairobi, shows that central and western Kenya are likely to receive wetter-than-normal rainfall, raising prospects for improved agricultural output but also increasing the risk of flooding in vulnerable areas.
In contrast, coastal regions of Kenya are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions, highlighting the uneven distribution of rainfall across the country.
ICPAC said there is a 45 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall over large parts of the region, covering central and western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti.
A further 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall is forecast for north-eastern and south-western Kenya, as well as western and eastern South Sudan, much of Somalia, coastal Tanzania and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.
Despite the generally favourable outlook, ICPAC cautioned that dry spells may still occur in areas expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall, while occasional wet spells could also affect areas forecast to be drier.
“Normal to early onset of rains is expected over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is forecast over localised areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia,” the climate body said.
Flood Risk and Rising Temperatures
Beyond East Africa, much of the Greater Horn of Africa is projected to experience enhanced rainfall during the MAM season, a trend that could boost water availability and agricultural productivity, but also heighten flood risks, particularly in flood-prone and low-lying areas.
ICPAC also warned of warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the region, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.
Cooler-than-average conditions are expected over parts of central to northern Ethiopia.
Calls for Early Action
ICPAC Director Dr Abdi Fidar said the GHACOF forum remains central to translating climate forecasts into action.
“GHACOF remains a critical regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and translating seasonal forecasts into early action that protects lives, livelihoods and development across the Greater Horn of Africa,” he said.
Kenya Meteorological Department Director Edward Muriuki underscored the importance of early warning systems in managing climate-related risks.
“Early warning services are critical in mitigating climate risks, providing timely information that enables governments, communities and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards,” he said.
Environment and Climate Change Principal Secretary Dr Eng. Festus K. Ng’eno added that reliable climate services are vital for informed decision-making.
“Climate services, when timely, credible and user-driven, provide a powerful bridge between climate science and practical actions that protect lives, livelihoods and support sustainable development,” he said.
ICPAC has urged governments, humanitarian agencies and development partners to align regional forecasts with national and sub-national outlooks issued by meteorological agencies and to scale up preparedness measures to reduce potential flood and drought impacts.
The GHACOF 72 forum brought together representatives from 11 countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, alongside experts from agriculture, water, health, disaster risk management, climate change and humanitarian sectors.
