NAIROBI, Kenya — All eyes are on Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi today as he takes to the floor of Parliament to unveil the 2025/2026 national budget—a Sh4.2 trillion spending plan that comes with big ambitions and even bigger questions.
It’s Mbadi’s debut budget presentation, and as the second finance minister under President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration, the stakes are high.
The pressure isn’t just on optics—it’s on numbers, projections, and where the money will actually come from.
At the heart of it, the government is counting on raising Sh2.7 trillion in taxes. That’s roughly 64 percent of the entire budget, and if that sounds bold, it is.
The Kenya Revenue Authority will have to stretch every shilling out of an economy that’s already under pressure from global shocks, domestic inflation, and widespread calls for tax relief.
But taxes alone won’t close the gap.
The Treasury is banking on an additional Sh560 billion from government levies, licenses, and service fees, a stream known in fiscal lingo as “Appropriations-in-Aid.” Toss that into the revenue pot and the total shoots up to Sh3.3 trillion.
Still, the math doesn’t quite balance.
Kenya is staring down a nearly Sh900 billion budget deficit. And the plan to plug it? Borrow, borrow, borrow.
The Treasury intends to raise Sh876 billion in loans—most of it, Sh592 billion, from local lenders and the remaining Sh284 billion through external borrowing. This dual borrowing strategy isn’t new, but it continues to stir concern about rising debt levels and the strain on future generations.
Grants are expected to contribute a modest Sh46.9 billion to the budget, a helpful boost but not a gamechanger.
For Mbadi, this moment isn’t just about presenting numbers—it’s about credibility.
Can the government really hit its ambitious revenue targets? Will Kenyans see value in return for higher taxes and rising service charges? And can this budget actually stimulate growth in an economy that desperately needs a jolt?
The answers may not come today, but the questions are already dominating the national conversation.
