NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenyans remain unconvinced that opposition leaders will set aside their rivalries and rally behind a single presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new survey by TIFA Research.
The poll shows that only 38 per cent of respondents believe it is very likely that politicians seeking to unseat President William Ruto will agree on one flagbearer, underscoring persistent scepticism about opposition unity despite growing calls for coalition politics.
A further 27 per cent said such unity is somewhat likely, while 26 per cent dismissed the possibility as not very likely. Nine per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided.
In its report released on Tuesday, TIFA said public opinion reflects cautious optimism tempered by deep political divisions and past experiences of failed alliances.
“Kenyans are cautiously optimistic but deeply divided about the opposition’s ability to unite behind a single presidential candidate in 2027,” the research firm noted.
The survey found that expectations around opposition cohesion are strongly shaped by political alignment. Among respondents opposed to the broad-based government (BBG), 45 per cent said opposition unity was very likely, compared with 33 per cent among BBG supporters.
TIFA cautioned, however, that the optimism among government critics may be driven more by political hopes than concrete developments.
“Such a contrast, however modest, again appears to be influenced by ‘wishful thinking’,” the report observed.
Scepticism was even more pronounced among respondents who said they had no firm position on the BBG.
In this group, only 18 per cent believed opposition unity was very likely, while 38 per cent said they were uncertain.
The firm also noted that voters appear increasingly unwilling to take political promises at face value, arguing that any alliance will only gain public trust once it is formally sealed.
“Alliances will only be believed once formalised,” TIFA said, pointing to a growing demand for clear political action rather than rhetoric.
The poll did not distinguish between the likelihood of opposition cooperation in the first round of voting and the possibility of alliances forming in the event of a run-off.
However, TIFA suggested that the evolving role of ODM leader Raila Odinga could reshape opposition dynamics, noting that his absence from active contestation may give ODM leaders and supporters greater freedom to chart their own political paths.
“One thing seems clear, however: that in Raila’s ‘absence’ both ODM leaders and followers will be freer to ‘make up their own minds’ about what party, coalition or presidential candidate to support,” the report said.
The survey was conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025, and sampled 2,053 adults across all 47 counties. It has a margin of error of ±2.16 per cent.
