NAIROBI, Kenya – President William Ruto faces a formidable political test following the failure of his ally, Raila Odinga, to secure the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.
The outcome has intensified political uncertainty, raising questions about Raila’s next move and his leverage over the Ruto administration.
Raila’s candidacy had been seen as the glue holding together the fragile alliance between him and Ruto.
With Ruto’s backing, the President hoped to secure goodwill from Raila’s voter base to compensate for his dwindling support in Mt. Kenya, where he faces backlash over the ouster of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
However, Raila lost in the seventh round of the election to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Youssouf, dashing those hopes.
Now, speculation is rife over how Raila will wield his influence.
At 80, he has signaled no intention of retiring, stating after his defeat that he has “a lot of work to do” back home.
This has sparked debate over whether he will realign with Ruto for political convenience or adopt a more independent stance.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu believes Raila will likely side with the government to extract maximum political gains.
“If Raila chooses to work with Ruto, he will be content because it will provide comfort. He will continue being arrogant and insulting Kenyans, knowing his business in Parliament will always pass. However, this won’t be easy because Raila will extract every last drop of Ruto’s resolve and set conditions for his support. If Raila demands Wetang’ula’s position, Wetang’ula will be sacrificed. If he wants the Chief Justice position, he will get it. Anything Raila wants, he will get,” Nyutu stated in a Monday interview.
BABA’S ADDIS RIPPLE EFFECT “If Raila chooses to work with Ruto, he will be content because it will provide comfort. He will continue being arrogant and insulting Kenyans, knowing his business in parliament will always pass. However, this won’t be easy because Raila will…
The defeat also exposed deep generational and ideological rifts.
Former Senate Majority Leader Samuel Poghisio noted that many Gen Z voters were quietly rooting for Raila to lose, believing he had “sold his soul” by aligning with Ruto.
“The invisible influence of Gen Z played a quiet yet powerful role in the AUC election. They weren’t praying for Raila’s success; they wanted him back to hold William Ruto accountable,” Poghisio said.
BABA’S ADDIS RIPPLE EFFECT “The invisible influence of Gen Z played a quiet yet powerful role in the AUC election. They weren’t praying for Raila’s success; they wanted him back to hold William Ruto accountable. Gen Z believes Raila sold his soul to secure the AUC seat by…
Meanwhile, tensions in Parliament are set to escalate after National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula’s ruling cemented Kenya Kwanza’s majority status.
Azimio MPs have vowed to challenge this decision, setting the stage for a fresh showdown on Tuesday.
