NAIROBI, Kenya – Most Kenyans believe the political absence of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga would make President William Ruto’s bid for a second term more difficult, according to a new national survey by Tifa Research.
The survey shows that 41 per cent of respondents think President Ruto’s re-election prospects would weaken in a post-Raila political landscape, compared to 30 per cent who believe his chances would improve.
Another 18 per cent said Raila’s absence would make no difference, while 10 per cent were undecided, underscoring uncertainty over how Kenya’s politics would realign.
The findings point to the central role Raila has continued to play in shaping electoral dynamics, even as the country operates under the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between him and President Ruto.
While the BBG has been credited with calming political tensions following years of sharp polarisation, the Tifa report notes that the pact has also unsettled core supporters on both sides, raising questions about its long-term political consequences.
According to the survey, Raila’s absence could expose fractures within his support base and complicate efforts to hold together opposition forces, potentially reshaping the balance of power ahead of future elections.
Supporters of the BBG largely view the arrangement as beneficial to national cohesion.
About 72 per cent cited reduced ethnic tension and improved political stability as the main reasons for backing the partnership — arguments frequently advanced by President Ruto and his allies.
However, attitudes towards the BBG strongly influenced perceptions of the President’s electoral fortunes.
Nearly twice as many BBG supporters as opponents believe Ruto’s chances would improve without Raila, at 40 per cent compared to 23 per cent.
In contrast, a majority of BBG opponents — 54 per cent — said Raila’s absence would make it harder for Ruto to secure re-election, compared to 31 per cent among BBG supporters.
Among respondents with no clear position on the BBG, uncertainty dominated, with 35 per cent saying they were unsure how Raila’s absence would affect the President’s prospects.
Overall, Tifa concludes that Kenya’s political landscape would remain highly fluid in a post-Raila era, with electoral outcomes likely to hinge on governance performance, shifting alliances and how effectively leaders respond to public expectations.
The findings are based on a Tifa national survey conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025.
A total of 2,053 Kenyan adults aged 18 and above were interviewed across all 47 counties through face-to-face household interviews.
The survey was conducted mainly in Swahili and English and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 per cent.
