NAIROBI, Kenya- In the grand chessboard of Kenyan politics, Raila Odinga’s failed bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship has unexpectedly shifted the game, and not in President William Ruto’s favor.
For Raila’s supporters, the disappointment is understandable. Many had anticipated a diplomatic victory, a crowning achievement in his storied career.
Instead, Djibouti’s win sent shockwaves through Kenya’s political landscape.
But in politics, as in chess, losing a piece does not always mean losing the game. Sometimes, it creates new strategic openings.
For Ruto, Raila’s exit to Addis Ababa would have been a masterstroke—removing a formidable political rival while basking in the glory of securing a continental seat for Kenya.
But with Raila still firmly in the ring, Ruto now finds himself in a more precarious position than before.
The Pawn Becomes a Kingmaker
President Ruto’s falling out with his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, has left a gaping hole in his Mt. Kenya strategy.
The region, once a stronghold, is slipping through his fingers. Gachagua, feeling politically wounded, has doubled down on his grassroots mobilization, positioning himself as the region’s true kingpin.
Without a solid grip on Mt. Kenya, Ruto needs a new anchor—and Raila Odinga is the only man who can provide it.
This is where the tables turn. By failing to secure the AUC position, Raila Odinga has gained something even more valuable: leverage.
Ruto, a man known for his relentless pursuit of victory, suddenly finds himself in a position where he must negotiate.
The whispers of an expanded executive to accommodate Raila are growing louder. Could he return as Prime Minister, a role he once played under the late Mwai Kibaki?
Checkmating the Ruto-Gachagua Rift
The biggest loser in all this may not be Raila but Ruto himself. He had built his 2022 campaign on the promise of defeating the ‘dynasties,’ yet he now finds himself needing Raila—the very embodiment of the dynasty narrative—to steady his 2027 re-election bid. This irony is not lost on keen political observers.
With Raila still in the picture, Ruto now has to manage not only his former deputy’s rebellion but also the expectations of Odinga’s loyal base.
Any misstep in this delicate balancing act could tip the scales in unexpected ways.
Meanwhile, Raila can play the waiting game. In chess, sometimes the most powerful move is to let your opponent make a mistake.
As Ruto scrambles to realign his strategy, Odinga has the luxury of watching from a position of strength, ready to strike when the moment is right.
While Raila’s AUC loss was seen as a setback, it has ironically secured his relevance in the Kenyan political landscape.
For Ruto, this is a new problem—one that requires careful maneuvering. Every move from here on will determine the 2027 checkmate.
The game is far from over. And Raila Odinga, once again, finds himself holding the most crucial piece.
