NAIROBI, Kenya — The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has announced a 55pc probability of a weak La Niña developing between December 2025 and February 2026, signalling potentially significant implications for global and regional weather patterns — including suppressed rainfall across East Africa.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO says oceanic and atmospheric indicators as of mid-November point to borderline La Niña conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
While La Niña typically brings cooler-than-average global temperatures, the agency warns that many regions will still experience warmer conditions due to the broader influence of human-induced climate change.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health, and transport,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. “This climate intelligence helps us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and save countless lives.”
According to the update, the likelihood of La Niña persisting diminishes later in the season, with a 65 to 75pc chance of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and April 2026. Forecasts show almost no likelihood of an El Niño event emerging during this period.
ENSO-neutral conditions occur when tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remain near average, signalling the absence of either the warming associated with El Niño or the cooling linked to La Niña.
Despite the weak forecast, rainfall projections for December–February resemble traditional La Niña patterns, influenced by other global climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The WMO update notes that temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of the Northern Hemisphere and large parts of the Southern Hemisphere over the next three months.
The warnings arrive as the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts generally sunny and dry conditions over several parts of the country.
Occasional rainfall is, however, expected in pockets of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley itself, the Northeastern region, the Lake Victoria Basin, and sections of the Southeastern lowlands.
A broader regional outlook by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) indicates a high likelihood of suppressed rainfall from December 2025 to February 2026 across equatorial and southern sectors of East Africa — including Kenya, southern Uganda, and most of Tanzania.
Warmer-than-usual temperatures are also forecast across much of the region, with only isolated pockets in Ethiopia, Kenya, and northeastern Somalia expected to experience cooler conditions.
Climate scientists caution that natural variability events such as La Niña are unfolding in the backdrop of global warming, which continues to amplify extreme weather, shift rainfall patterns, and elevate baseline temperatures.
National meteorological services across the region are expected to monitor conditions closely to guide governments and sectors such as agriculture, water management, disaster preparedness, and public health.
The evolving La Niña outlook is likely to shape emergency planning across East Africa, where suppressed rainfall and higher temperatures could heighten drought risks, stress crop production, and strain already vulnerable water systems.
