NAIROBI, Kenya — Global weather outlooks are signalling a possible return of El Niño conditions later this year, following a brief and weakening La Niña phase that is fading faster than earlier projections suggested.
Recent forecasts from major climate agencies show global patterns shifting from a weak La Niña to a weak El Niño by mid-year. While scientists caution that it is still early to define the full impact, El Niño events are often associated with above-average rainfall in Kenya.
Projections by the US Climate Prediction Centre and other international weather centres indicate that El Niño could begin forming between May and July 2026.
There is also a possibility that the phenomenon could strengthen to moderate or strong levels later in the year.
“For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” the US Met Office said in a statement.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has issued similar assessments, warning that forecasts beyond May remain difficult due to seasonal prediction limits at this time of the year.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has not yet issued an official response to the global outlooks. However, it is expected to release its February three-month forecast covering the March to May long rains season.
India’s Meteorological Department has also flagged an increased likelihood of El Niño developing during the June-July-August period.
“It is too early to say with certainty during which month El Niño will emerge,” said IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. “These are very early forecasts, and there will be more clarity in the coming months.”
Despite the expected transition, forecasters agree that La Niña—often linked to dry conditions in Kenya—is ending rapidly. Even so, its effects are still being felt in parts of northern Kenya.
Data from the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) shows that drought conditions in arid and semi-arid counties have worsened following the poor performance of the October to December 2025 short rains.
According to the NDMA’s Drought Early Warning System, Mandera County remains in the ‘Alarm’ drought phase, signalling severe stress on livelihoods and food security.
Against this backdrop, the Kenya Red Cross Society has urged the government to integrate climate risk planning into national development strategies and budget processes.
The organisation said climate risk management focuses on early action to reduce threats, limit damage, and help communities cope with both extreme weather events and slow-onset climate changes.
“More than 2.1 million people face an acute food crisis in arid and semi-arid regions, with thousands of children malnourished and in need of urgent support,” Kenya Red Cross Society Secretary General Ahmed Idris said.
He added that life-saving humanitarian assistance must be expanded, noting that the society continues to work with partners such as UNICEF, the World Food Programme, and the US Embassy to provide food, water, and essential medicines.
NDMA, the government agency responsible for coordinating drought risk management, has warned that climate shocks are becoming more frequent and severe, underscoring the need for early preparedness as Kenya heads into an uncertain climate outlook later this year.
