NAIROBI, Kenya — Political analyst Barrack Muluka has claimed that the recent Malava and Mbeere North by-elections were deliberately used as “test cases” to gauge how Kenyan voters respond to money, intimidation, violence, and political deceit — a warning he says carries implications for the 2027 general election.
Speaking on Citizen TV’s JKLive on Wednesday night, Muluka argued that the conduct and outcome of the two mini-polls signalled to the political establishment that such tactics remain effective.
“Malava and Mbeere North, these were test cases. The state was testing the response of the electorate to money, to intimidation, to violence, to lies,” he said. “The verdict has returned to the house on the hill that it worked well.”
Muluka’s remarks came during a heated discussion with legal scholar PLO Lumumba, who similarly warned that Kenya’s electoral environment remains vulnerable to manipulation, undermining the confidence of young voters and fuelling widespread apathy.
Lumumba noted that Generation Z in particular has grown increasingly sceptical of elections after years of disputed results, allegations of bribery and violence at polling centres, and the perception that powerful actors rarely face consequences for electoral offenses.
“There is this feeling that the ballot is rigged and that therefore the ballot is not the avenue,” he said. “I however say that young people should come out in millions; democracy is protected by the vigilance of the population.”
The two analysts said the events in Malava and Mbeere North must be understood not as isolated incidents but as part of a broader pattern where state agencies, political interests, and local power brokers treat by-elections as laboratories ahead of national contests.
Reports from observers indicated heightened security presence, heavy patronage, and claims of mobilization through cash handouts — accusations politicians repeatedly denied.
On JKLive, Muluka insisted that unless institutions demonstrate firmness, Kenya risks entering the 2027 race with an electorate conditioned to expect bribery and coercion as normal political tools. He argued that this environment creates fertile ground for further violence and erodes public trust in democratic processes.
Lumumba added that voter apathy among youths could worsen if such trends continue. He urged Gen Z to resist disengagement, warning that low turnout only makes it easier for political actors to manipulate outcomes.
Civil society groups monitoring the recent by-elections have similarly warned that if the behaviour seen in Malava and Mbeere North is replicated nationally, Kenya could face a legitimacy crisis.
Institutions, including the IEBC, NCIC, and investigative agencies, have been urged to fast-track electoral preparedness, crack down on bribery, and act decisively on reported misconduct.
As the 2027 campaigns begin taking shape, the concerns raised by Muluka and Lumumba highlight a growing urgency for institutional reforms, civic education, and enforcement of election laws.
