JUBA, South Sudan — South Sudanese President Salva Kiir’s recent overseas medical visit has reignited long-standing concerns over his health and triggered what analysts say is a carefully staged plan to secure his succession — with controversial businessman-turned-politician Benjamin Bol Mel at the center.
Kiir returned to Juba on Wednesday after spending at least 10 days in the United Arab Emirates.
While state media described the trip as a mission to “explore new avenues for economic cooperation,” members of his entourage, speaking anonymously, said the 73-year-old was in the Gulf state for medical tests.
The trip has fueled speculation about Kiir’s fitness to lead, especially given years of secrecy surrounding his health.
In April, footage of him struggling to walk during a meeting with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni — who at 80 appeared more physically agile — added to growing public concern.
In May, the foreign ministry was forced to deny social media rumours claiming Kiir had died.
Bol Mel Steps In
In Kiir’s absence, his newly appointed second vice president, Benjamin Bol Mel, chaired last week’s cabinet meeting.
Once known primarily as a construction tycoon and financial handler for the Kiir family, Bol Mel has rapidly risen through the ranks of power.
He was appointed to the vice presidency in February and made deputy head of the ruling party in May.
His ascent appears to be part of a long-planned transition strategy, according to multiple analysts and diplomats.
“It seems to be a script written a long time ago and being implemented in phases,” said Wani Michael, a former activist now in exile. “They had to take away Riek Machar to pave the way for Bol Mel.”
Kiir’s longtime rival, Riek Machar — with whom he shared a bitter civil war between 2013 and 2018 — has been under house arrest since March.
Many of Machar’s allies have reportedly been detained, and his military bases attacked by government forces.
The UN says more than 700 people were killed in ethnic and political clashes between January and March this year.
Kiir also removed intelligence chief Akol Koor in October, another potential threat to Bol Mel’s succession bid.
“Bol Mel has taken control of the security forces by installing loyalists,” said a diplomat based in Juba. “He has taken over both the security and financial apparatus since late last year.”
A Fragile Calm
Despite the mounting repression, the country has not descended into full-blown conflict, a surprise for many observers.
“It’s devastating on a humanitarian level, but it’s nothing compared to the colossal massacres of a few years ago when thousands died each month,” said the diplomat. “The government has been fairly successful in subduing the various rebellions.”
Machar’s faction has largely remained passive in the face of aggression, while internal divisions have sapped its strength.
Still, Bol Mel’s path to power is not guaranteed.
“The government has not gained legitimacy at home or internationally,” said political analyst James Boboya. “There’s deep disillusionment, especially over the repeated postponement of elections.”
South Sudan has never held a democratic vote since gaining independence in 2011.
National elections were most recently pushed to 2026, despite mounting pressure to hold them sooner.
Civil society leaders are urging the government to abandon opaque succession deals and allow South Sudanese citizens to choose their leaders at the ballot box.
“Elections are the only viable way for a peaceful transfer of power,” said Edmund Yakani, head of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation (CEPO). “We need the power of our vote in shaping the future. Not the bullet, and not leaders imposed on us.”
