NAIROBI, Kenya – Malaria is a major public health issue in Africa, with deaths peaking at 608,000 in 2022, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), accounting for 95% of global malaria deaths.
Malaria is primarily spread through bites from infected mosquitoes, and recent extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and floods, have created ideal breeding grounds for these insects.
However, in a recent study conducted by the University of Leeds, climate changes could lead to a significant reduction in areas suitable for malaria transmission in Africa from 2025 onwards.
The study predicts that the hot and dry conditions brought about by climate change will make massive regions of Africa less favorable to the spread of malaria.
Although this is a positive outcome, it comes with significant drawbacks, including reduced water availability and an increased risk of dengue fever according to a Professor of Climate Risks & Environmental Modeling and co-author of the study, Simon Gosling.
Previous assessments across Africa primarily relied on precipitation to represent surface water.
However, the new study utilized a weighted collection of global hydrological and climate models to estimate current and future hydro-climatic conditions for malaria transmission more accurately.
This innovative approach offers a more detailed understanding of water-body dynamics, which could be helpful in shaping national malaria control strategies.
The new findings offer hope in the fight against malaria, suggesting that fewer regions will support the parasite’s transmission as climate change progresses.
The study also highlights the complex relationship between climate change and disease spread.
For instance, while some areas may become less suitable for malaria, they might simultaneously face increased risks from other diseases like dengue fever, which thrives in warm and wet conditions.
The 2023 WHO World Malaria Report emphasized the connection between malaria and climate change, acknowledging its role as a potential risk multiplier.
