NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenya is set to experience a predominantly hot and dry start to 2026, with only occasional rainfall expected in a few regions, according to the latest forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department.
In its January–March outlook, the department said most parts of the country will remain dry, raising concerns over food security, water availability and livestock health, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas.
“The outlook for January 2026 indicates that most parts of the country will experience predominantly dry weather conditions,” said Met deputy director Kennedy Thiong’o in a statement. “However, a few areas are likely to receive occasional rainfall.”
These areas include the highlands west and east of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the central and southern Rift Valley, Nairobi County, the southeastern lowlands and the coastal strip.
The forecast comes as farmers assess crops planted during the October–December season, some of which are still in the fields and now face increased pressure from heat and moisture stress.
Temperatures to soar
The department warned that high temperatures will be a defining feature of the January to March period, with daytime temperatures expected to rise above normal levels across the country.
“Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over the whole country,” Thiong’o said, adding that parts of northern and northeastern Kenya could occasionally record temperatures exceeding 37°C.
Counties such as Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Wajir and Garissa are expected to remain hot and dry throughout January, with daytime temperatures ranging between 30°C and 40°C.
Limited and uneven rainfall
While most regions will experience sunny and dry conditions, the department said brief rainfall episodes may occur in parts of western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin and the southern Rift Valley in January and February, before spreading to more areas in March.
Counties including Kisumu, Kakamega, Nakuru, Kericho and Narok may receive light to moderate rainfall, though it is expected to be short-lived and unevenly distributed.
Central Kenya and the highlands east of the Rift Valley — including Nairobi, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang’a, Meru and Embu — are also expected to remain largely dry, with occasional showers.
Climate drivers behind dry spell
The Met Department linked the suppressed rainfall to global climate patterns, particularly the ongoing La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, combined with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole.
“This combination suggests a tendency towards suppressed rainfall over parts of East Africa, including Kenya, during January 2026,” the department said, noting that localised rainfall may still occur due to transient weather systems.
Food security concerns
The dry conditions are expected to worsen food security in northern and eastern Kenya, where water, pasture and food supplies are already under strain.
“The dry weather conditions expected during the month are likely to worsen food security as availability of food, water and pasture for human and livestock use declines further,” the department warned.
It urged national and county governments, as well as humanitarian agencies, to take early action to reduce the risk of hunger and livestock losses.
Farmers were advised to monitor weather updates closely, conserve water and make use of any rainfall that occurs to support crops still in the fields, while communities were urged to prepare for heat stress and prolonged water shortages.
