NAIROBI, Kenya — President William Ruto remains the most preferred presidential candidate nationally, with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i emerging as his closest challenger, according to the Infotrak End of Year Poll – December 2025.
The poll, conducted among 1,000 respondents across all 47 counties, shows Ruto maintaining a lead in voter preference if a presidential election were held today, reflecting the enduring advantage of incumbency despite mounting economic pressures and political realignments ahead of the 2027 general election
Matiang’i’s strong showing places him second overall, signalling growing appeal beyond his traditional support base and positioning him as a central figure in emerging opposition conversations. Analysts say his performance reflects voter appetite for perceived administrative firmness and past government experience.
Despite Ruto’s lead, the poll reveals a highly unsettled electorate. Twenty-five pc of respondents said they were undecided, while a further 4pc declined to state their preference, underscoring widespread voter caution more than a year before the next polls
Other potential contenders trail far behind, each registering low single-digit or fractional support, highlighting the absence of a consolidated alternative challenger at this stage.
Infotrak found that economic concerns—particularly the cost of living, employment and overall economic management—are the dominant factors likely to influence voter choice in 2027. Political analysts say this context presents both an opportunity and a risk for the president, whose leadership will continue to be judged primarily on economic outcomes
“Matiang’i’s rise suggests voters are not simply rallying behind personalities, but are reassessing leadership options based on performance and credibility,” said a Nairobi-based political analyst familiar with the survey.
The poll also indicates that voter preferences vary significantly by region and political formation, with urban centres showing greater openness to opposition-aligned candidates, while other regions remain more supportive of the broad-based government arrangement
Analysts caution that with party loyalty weak and coalition politics dominant, current rankings could shift rapidly depending on alliances, endorsements, and the eventual line-up of candidates.
While Ruto leads at this stage, Infotrak’s findings suggest the 2027 presidential race is far from settled. The combination of a large undecided vote, a fragmented opposition field, and economic uncertainty means voter sentiment remains fluid.
The Infotrak poll was conducted in December 2025 using proportionate sampling across counties and demographics, including age, gender, education, religion, and employment status.
Researchers note that the results capture current attitudes rather than fixed voting intentions, with significant shifts expected as political campaigns gather momentum
