NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenya is staring at a deepening food security crisis as erratic weather, rising rice prices and a High Court battle over duty-free imports converge, threatening access to one of the country’s fastest-growing staple foods.
Rice, once considered a secondary grain, has become central to household diets across urban and rural Kenya.
But official data presented before the High Court shows the country’s reliance on imports is no longer temporary — it is structural and worsening.
Annual national demand now stands at between 1.3 and 1.5 million metric tonnes, yet local production meets less than 20 per cent of that requirement.
The shortfall, government lawyers warned, is set to widen sharply in early 2026.
DROUGHT, RICE PRICES & A LOOMING FOOD CRISIS: WE ARE AT A CRITICAL CROSSROADSKenya is edging closer to a food crisis as drought disrupts production, rice supply gaps widen, and prices begin to wobble.
Between January and June next year, Kenya will require about 750,000 metric tonnes of rice.
Projected domestic output for the same period stands at just 110,000 metric tonnes of paddy rice — a gap that existing stocks cannot cover.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s Contingency Emergency Response Action Plan 2025 paints an even starker picture, projecting a rice deficit of 381,225 metric tonnes by the end of January 2026.
Climate shocks tighten supply
The looming shortage is unfolding against worsening climate conditions. Forecasts presented to the court show erratic and below-average rainfall across key food-producing regions, disrupting planting calendars and cutting yields.
In major irrigated schemes such as Mwea, Ahero and Bunyala, reduced water availability has pushed up production costs and constrained output. In rain-fed areas, delayed or failed rains have wiped out entire planting seasons.
The government warned that these shocks are not isolated but part of a broader pattern of climate variability that continues to undermine food production and price stability — with the risk that pressure on rice could spill over into maize and other staples.
With rice now a key staple in urban and ASAL households, falling domestic output and erratic rainfall are already fuelling volatility and threatening a broader food inflation wave that could hit maize and other essentials.
Legal battle over imports
At the centre of the crisis is a legal challenge against the government’s decision to allow controlled, time-bound, duty-free rice imports as a food security intervention.
In submissions before the High Court sitting in Kerugoya, State Counsel Samuel Kaumba and Erick Theuri told the court that blocking imports would likely trigger sharp price increases, particularly for non-basmati long-grain rice.
The case, HCCHRPET/E009/2025, was filed by substituted petitioners Hon. James Kamau Murango and David Munyi Mathenge, who are challenging Gazette Notice No. 10353 of July 28, 2025, which authorised the duty-free imports.
Government lawyers said the lapse of the Gazette Notice had already caused price volatility in the second half of 2025 — an early warning of what could happen if imports are halted entirely.
“Rising rice prices disproportionately affect low-income households, especially in informal settlements and drought-hit counties,” the State submitted, warning that unaffordable rice would push households to maize, triggering a broader inflationary effect across the food system.
Kenya produces less than 20% of the rice it consumes. By early 2026, the deficit is projected to exceed 380,000MT, with demand between January and June alone estimated at 750,000MT.
Food insecurity risks deepen
The supply crisis comes as food insecurity worsens in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs).
By November 2025, an estimated 1.8 million people were already experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity. Without timely intervention, that number could rise to 3.5 million.
The government rejected claims that duty-free imports benefit a few individuals, arguing the policy is anchored in constitutional obligations under Articles 21 and 43, which guarantee the right to food.
Blocking imports, it warned, would expose millions of Kenyans to higher prices, reduced access to staples and heightened hunger.
Against this backdrop, the High Court is considering a challenge to the Government’s move to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports to stabilise supply and prices.
Local rice not enough
Addressing concerns about unsold local rice, the Ministry said it has continued to lawfully mop up stocks through the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC).
Since 2020, KNTC has purchased rice from cooperatives in Mwea, Ahero, Bunyala, Kuja, Kano and Bura for redistribution to public institutions such as schools, hospitals and prisons.
However, the State maintained that absorbing local stocks alone cannot stabilise national prices or close the widening deficit.
“Localised surplus cannot be equated with national food security,” the government told the court, stressing that food security must be assessed at a national scale.
The ruling, due on 29 January 2026, will carry real consequences for food prices, household budgets, and the constitutional right to food at a moment when delay risks turning climate stress into a full-blown hunger crisis.
Court ruling awaited
In a pointed argument, the government cautioned against judicial overreach into executive policy space, citing Supreme Court and Court of Appeal decisions that call for restraint where state action is evidence-based, lawful and taken in good faith.
While acknowledging the petitioners’ concerns, the State argued that they were narrow when weighed against the broader public interest.
“The court is being asked to balance competing interests,” government lawyers submitted. “On one side are commercial concerns; on the other are the livelihoods, dignity and survival of millions of Kenyans.”
The High Court is expected to deliver its ruling on January 29, 2026, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for food prices, household welfare and Kenya’s food security outlook.
