NAIROBI, Kenya – More than 150,000 learners under Kenya’s Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) failed to progress to Grade 9, exposing growing concerns about retention despite the government’s push for 100 per cent transition at all levels.
New data released by the Kenya National Examinations Council (KNEC) show that the transition rate from primary to junior school currently stands at 88.17 per cent, falling well short of official targets.
Records indicate that 1,282,150 learners sat the Kenya Early Years Assessment (KEYA) at Grade 3 in 2019.
By 2022, the number had dropped to 1,253,577 candidates who undertook the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA) in Grade 6.
The decline became more pronounced this year during the inaugural Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA), which attracted only 1,130,587 candidates — leaving over 150,000 learners unaccounted for along the CBC pathway.
While education authorities have not cited a single reason for the drop, officials acknowledge that some learners may have transitioned to other curricula, joined vocational training institutions, or exited the school system altogether.
Gender analysis of the data reveals that boys are leaving school at higher rates than girls. In 2019, the CBC cohort comprised 677,628 boys and 604,522 girls.
By the 2025 KJSEA, the number of boys had fallen to 578,691, while girls stood at 551,896 — slightly increasing their share of the cohort.
“A total of 1,130,587 candidates registered for the 2025 KJSEA in January across 24,366 junior schools,” KNEC Chief Executive Officer David Njengere said during the release of the results.
“To enhance access, KNEC also administered a KJSEA Qualifying Test to 2,032 learners in Grade 9 who had joined CBC from other systems or had missed KPSEA,” he added.
Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Ogamba said the attrition reflects a mix of social, economic and personal factors rather than systemic exclusion.
“Some learners drop out due to natural attrition, including death or inability to continue with schooling. Others opt for vocational training or international curricula,” Ogamba said.
“There are also cases of temporary withdrawal due to illness or early pregnancy, but learners are allowed to return once they are ready,” he added.
The challenge of retention extends beyond junior school. Data from this year’s registration for the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) shows 996,078 candidates, compared to 1,214,031 learners who sat the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) in 2021.
This means more than 217,000 learners did not make it to the final secondary school examination stage, with the actual number expected to rise once KCSE results are released.
The figures have renewed debate over learner support, re-entry pathways and the long-term sustainability of universal transition under the CBC system.
