ADDIS ABABA – Ethiopia – Former prime minister Raila Odinga has been dealt a significant blow after losing the African Union Commission (AUC) chairman position.
Raila dropped out in round 6 of the election after Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Yusuf scored 26 votes while Raila came second with 22 votes.
There was one abstention in the polls held on Saturday, February 15, 2025. Mahmoud is proceeding to the next round seeking a two-thirds majority—33 votes plus.
If he does not get it, no winner will be declared, and they face off again in a postponed election.
What was the impact of the AUC elections
Raila was Kenya’s candidate for the coveted seat and was expected to square it out with Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar during the elections.
The winner of the elections to be held during the annual summit of the AU’s heads of state and government will succeed the outgoing Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, who has served for two terms.
However, according to political analysts who spoke to Y News, several factors were likely to determine the outcome of this particular election.
For instance, Prof. David Kikaya observed that the impact of the AUC chairperson campaigns before the elections would be a major factor.
“The election process involves voting by the 55 member states, and effective campaigning can sway undecided members and galvanise support to secure the necessary votes,” said Prof. Kikaya.
What were the dynamics of electing the AUC chairperson
Former United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) secretary-general Mukhisa Kituyi observed that the dynamics of electing leadership for the African Union (AU) are not always in sync with good campaigning.
“This is why there has only been one non-Muslim leader of the African Union Commission chairperson, Dlamini Zuma from South Africa. You cannot say that Francophone Africa campaigns better. Other dynamics are beyond the energy and resourcing of campaigns by countries sponsoring the candidates,” Kituyi explained.
Kituyi, who worked at the UN for eight years, said that Francophone Africa votes as a bloc when there is an election.
“It is extremely difficult normally for Francophone Africa to vote as a bloc for a non-Francophone speaker if and when there is a Francophone speaker among the candidates,” Kituyi further said.
He also said that there is a very large constituency of Muslim-majority states on the African continent, which will play a crucial role in the elections.
