NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast mixed rainfall performance and elevated heat risks during the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 long rains season, warning that uneven distribution and intermittent dry spells could affect food security, water availability, and public safety.
The outlook, released following the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF-12) held in Nairobi, indicates that while some regions are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, others — particularly arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) and the Coast — may experience below-average totals.
According to KMD, near-to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya.
However, the department cautioned that isolated heavy rainfall events may occur in these regions, increasing the risk of localised flooding and landslides.
In contrast, near-average to below-average rainfall is forecast for south-eastern lowlands, north-eastern Kenya, and parts of the north-west. These areas are likely to experience poorly distributed rainfall with intermittent dry spells, conditions that could negatively affect crop production, pasture regeneration, and water resources.
The Coastal region — including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu, as well as the coastal parts of Tana River County — is expected to record below-average rainfall. KMD noted that despite lower seasonal totals, isolated heavy rainfall events could still occur later in the season, with peak rainfall at the Coast projected in May, later than in most other regions.
“The season is projected to have a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across several areas, with intermittent dry spells, though isolated heavy rainfall events may occur,” said Edward M. Muriuki, the Acting Director of Meteorological Services.
The department further warned that warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the entire country during the season. This is likely to heighten heat-related risks, particularly in ASAL regions, coastal counties, and major urban centres.
KMD advised the public and sectoral stakeholders to plan ahead using climate-informed strategies. Priority sectors highlighted include agriculture and food security, water resources management, health services, energy production, transport and infrastructure, disaster risk management, and urban and community planning.
The MAM 2026 outlook is themed “From Crisis Response to Climate Preparedness – Inclusive Early Warning Services for All,” underscoring the shift toward anticipatory action and early warning systems to reduce climate-related losses.
KMD said the seasonal forecast is intended to support government agencies, county authorities, humanitarian actors, and the private sector in preparedness planning, as Kenya continues to face heightened vulnerability from climate variability and extreme weather events.
