NAIROBI, Kenya – The Kenyan government will be forced to go back to the drawing board after its candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship position, Raila Odinga, was defeated by his Djibouti rival.
Raila lost the highly contested race to Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Mahmoud Youssouf.
A combination of last-minute blunders and shifts in events, according to political commentators, may have cost Raila—who has lost five attempts to become Kenya’s president—the coveted job, extending his lifelong quest for the elusive victory.
Youssouf won 33 votes in round seven, the last round of voting, to claim continental glory. Raila had taken an early lead in Rounds One and Two, securing 20 and 22 votes, respectively.
I thank HE pdt William Ruto for congratulating me on my victory : he is the African champion for the Reforms : I am honored to work with him to advance our continental agenda : Asanti sana Mze
The Djiboutian trailed closely with 18 and 19 in the initial rounds. Madagascar’s former Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato managed 10 and seven votes, respectively.
Why Raila Odinga’s close relationship with President cost him
According to city lawyer Willis Evans Otieno, Raila’s loss in the AU chairperson race was not just about his credentials or past contributions to the continent—it was a referendum on the baggage he carried into the contest.
“By aligning himself with President William Ruto, a leader whose regime has been marred by state repression, abductions, and the violent crackdown on Gen Z protesters, Raila unwittingly tainted his candidacy in the eyes of an Africa that is increasingly wary of leaders complicit in human rights violations,” said Otieno.
Communication specialist Mary Susan said that Raila’s defeat was not just a personal defeat but a glaring indictment of the failed and corrupt leadership in Kenya.
“The very government that poured millions of taxpayers’ money into his campaign could not even secure the votes needed to guarantee his victory. Instead, Kenya has been humiliated on the international stage, losing to Djibouti, a country with a fraction of Kenya’s political and economic influence,” said Susan.
How Raila Odinga’s last-minute lobbying cost him the AUC seat
Political analyst Daniel ‘Boss’ Ndambuki said that Raila’s loss in the AUC elections can be attributed to a combination of strategic miscalculations, geopolitical dynamics, and diplomatic shortcomings.
“While Raila is a seasoned politician with extensive experience in governance and diplomacy, several key factors worked against his bid. The late and superficial lobbying. Winning the AUC position requires years of deeply cultivated friendships with heads of state. Raila’s engagement with African leaders was perceived as last-minute lobbying rather than a long-term diplomatic relationship,” Ndambuki said.
Kenyan politicians, analysts and political commentators alike are coming up with many theories as to why Kenya lost its bid for the chairmanship of the AUC. Conspiracy theories range from “jealous neighbours, Angolophone vs Francophone and even others being envious of their…
According to Otieno, “Ruto’s perceived juvenile miscalculations” in foreign affairs have not only exposed his profound lack of diplomatic acumen but have also relegated Kenya to a position of ridicule and diminished stature on the continental stage.
“How many crucial votes were forfeited through the brazen abduction of Uganda’s opposition leader Kizza Besigye and the Tanzanian activist?” posed Otieno.
Otieno observed that President Ruto’s move to take sides in the Israel-Palestine conflict cost Raila’s bid.
“By that mortifyingly servile call to French President Emmanuel Macron over the Eastern Democratic of Congo (DRC) crisis, reducing himself to a mere marionette, tugged along by foreign interests, Raila suffered a significant blow,” said Otieno.
