NAIROBI, Kenya – The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to record below-normal rainfall in key regions during the October to December (OND) 2025 season, raising concerns over agriculture, water supply, and food security.
This was revealed during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF71), held in Nairobi on August 25-26, 2025, and organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with national meteorological bodies, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), and other partners.
According to the consolidated forecast, drier-than-average conditions are likely across southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania, with the probability of below-normal rainfall reaching up to 55 percent.
In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions are projected in parts of western Kenya, southern South Sudan, and sections of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi.
“The OND season contributes up to 70 percent of annual rainfall in parts of Kenya and Somalia,” ICPAC said.
“This makes the outlook critical for livelihoods and food production across the region.”
The forum also highlighted that rainfall exceeding 300mm is most likely in western Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania, while the chances remain low in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and central Tanzania.
Temperature forecasts indicate that the region will be warmer than average, with the highest probabilities over eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.
Meanwhile, pockets of South Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Ethiopia could see near-normal to cooler conditions.
The outlook is influenced by global climate drivers, including a potential La Niña event, which is typically linked to drier conditions in eastern Africa.
National Meteorological Services will provide country-specific advisories, while ICPAC will issue regular regional updates as the season progresses.
