BEIJING, China — China recorded its lowest birth rate on record in 2025, underscoring a deepening demographic crisis as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with a shrinking population and a rapidly ageing society.
Official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows the birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025, down from 6.39 per 1,000 in 2023, confirming that a modest rebound in births seen in 2024 was short-lived.
The latest figures mark the fourth consecutive year of population decline, with 7.92 million babies born last year compared with 11.31 million deaths, resulting in a net population drop of 3.39 million people.
China’s total population now stands at about 1.4 billion, still second globally behind India.
The demographic setback comes even as China reported 5% economic growth in 2025, in line with the government’s annual target.
Officials said the expansion was driven largely by strong exports, which helped cushion the impact of weak domestic consumption and ongoing trade tensions with the United States.
Statistics bureau chief Kang Yi described the economic performance as one of “remarkable stability,” saying China had navigated a “complex and severe situation marked by rapid changes in the external environment and mounting domestic challenges.”
Despite meeting its growth target, analysts warn that falling birth rates pose a long-term threat to China’s economic prospects, labour supply and global ambitions.
An ageing nation
China’s demographic challenge is intensifying as its workforce shrinks while the number of retirees rises sharply.
Data shows the population aged 60 and above reached 323 million in 2025, accounting for 23% of the total population, up from the previous year.
United Nations projections suggest that as much as half of China’s population could be over 60 by 2100, a shift that could place enormous strain on public finances, healthcare systems and productivity, while complicating Beijing’s efforts to compete with the United States economically and militarily.
Demographers say the crisis is rooted partly in decades of strict population controls under the now-abandoned one-child policy, which was scrapped in 2016.
Those policies accelerated trends already seen in countries such as Japan and South Korea, where declining birth rates are linked to urbanisation, rising education levels, changing attitudes toward marriage, and the high cost of raising children.
Government incentives fall short
Chinese authorities have rolled out a series of measures aimed at encouraging couples to have more children.
These include cash bonuses for families with children under three, streamlined marriage registration, free public preschool, tax breaks, housing incentives and extended maternity leave in some regions.
President Xi Jinping has framed the issue as one of “population security,” calling for the development of a “high-quality population,” while also pushing for greater automation in factories to offset labour shortages.
However, experts remain sceptical that incentives alone can reverse the trend, particularly as young people face job insecurity, high housing costs and social pressures.
Some analysts also pointed to cultural factors, noting that 2025 was the “Year of the Snake” in the Chinese zodiac, traditionally seen as less favourable for childbirth than the preceding Year of the Dragon, which may have contributed to the decline.
Beyond long-term challenges, fewer births could have immediate economic consequences.
“Children are ‘super consumers,’” said Yi Fuxian, a demographic expert and senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. “With births at such low levels, China’s domestic demand is likely to remain weak, leaving the economy increasingly dependent on exports.”
