NAIROBI, Kenya- Brace yourselves: The Horn of Africa is gearing up for a rough end to 2024.
International agencies, including the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and the Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), have sounded the alarm for potential drought conditions due to expected below-average rainfall in the October-December season.
The latest climate models suggest a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024.
This means below-average rainfall, especially in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. The ripple effect will also touch Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, where the second rain season falls within this period.
In a statement issued from Nairobi, these agencies warned that the below-average rains could lead to “crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition.”
They urged humanitarian partners to collaborate with local and national governments to support contingency planning and preparedness activities.
The Horn of Africa is no stranger to drought. Severe drought events in 2010/2011, 2016/2017, and 2020/2021 wreaked havoc across the region.
These events were characterized by consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, exacerbated by higher-than-usual temperatures. The result? Severe pasture and water shortages, livestock fatalities, failed cropping seasons, population displacements, rising food prices, worsening human health, and widespread food insecurity and malnutrition.
Currently, about 20.4 million people across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia face high levels of food insecurity and urgently need assistance.
Acute malnutrition remains a major concern, with more than 6.2 million children under five years projected to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2024. Of these, 1.7 million are expected to face severe acute malnutrition.
The situation is dire, but there is hope. The agencies call for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of the expected below-average rains.
They emphasize the importance of engaging with local and national governments to support contingency planning, implement preparedness activities, and identify anticipatory actions.
By doing so, the region can better withstand the challenges posed by the looming drought.
The stakes are high, but with coordinated efforts and strategic planning, there is a chance to alleviate some of the suffering and build resilience against future climate-related disasters.
