NAIROBI, Kenya — William Ruto has condemned the widening conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, warning that the escalating violence threatens international peace and could carry economic consequences for Kenya.
In a statement issued Monday, the Kenyan president criticised attacks across several Gulf countries as tensions in the Middle East continue to intensify.
“Kenya strongly condemns the strikes on the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain in the evolving conflict in the Middle East,” Ruto said.
“It is evident that the regionalisation of this conflict poses a grave threat to international peace and security. Kenya calls for urgent multi-stakeholder engagement towards de-escalation.”
Kenya has traditionally supported diplomacy and peaceful dispute resolution in global conflicts, aligning its foreign policy with international law and multilateral engagement.
Opposition Raises Concerns
Opposition leaders responded cautiously, with some questioning whether the government has sufficiently prepared for potential economic fallout from the conflict.
Critics have urged the government to clearly outline contingency plans for Kenyans living and working in the Gulf, as well as measures to cushion the economy should the conflict disrupt trade routes or fuel supplies.
Analysts note that although Kenya is geographically distant from the conflict zone, its economic ties with the Middle East are significant.
Rising Fuel Costs Hit Businesses
Kenyan businesses are already reporting early impacts from rising global oil prices.
Vincent Kipngeno, a Nairobi-based logistics businessman exporting horticultural produce to Gulf markets, said the pressure is being felt across the supply chain.
“We are already feeling the pressure,” Kipngeno said, noting that higher fuel costs immediately affect transport, refrigeration, and air freight.
“Our trucks, cold storage, and flights all depend on fuel, so when oil prices spike because of war in the Middle East, the expenses hit us right away.”
He warned that disruptions to shipping routes or airspace could delay exports and increase insurance costs.
“For businesses like ours, even the possibility of escalation forces companies to rethink contracts, schedules, and pricing,” he said.
Traders Feel Pressure
Small traders are also feeling the strain.
Aisha Juma, a clothing trader in Nairobi’s Eastleigh market — often called “Little Mogadishu” — said transport costs are already rising.
“For traders like us, the effects start almost immediately when tensions rise in the Middle East because Kenya relies heavily on fuel coming through that region,” she said.
“When prices rise, the cost of moving goods from the port to Nairobi also increases.”
Higher transport costs, she added, eventually translate into more expensive goods for consumers.
Kenyans in the Gulf
The conflict has also raised concerns among families of Kenyan workers abroad.
More than 400,000 Kenyans live and work in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
Many are employed in domestic work, construction, hospitality, and aviation, sending remittances that support households and contribute to Kenya’s foreign exchange reserves.
Peter Otieno, a Kenyan construction worker based in Riyadh, said many workers are closely monitoring developments.
“What happens here affects our livelihoods and our safety,” he said. “If companies slow down projects or flights are disrupted, the first thing people worry about is whether contracts will continue.”
Trade and Export Risks
Economists warn the conflict could also affect Kenya’s export markets.
XN Iraki, an economist at the University of Nairobi, noted that Iran remains a major market for Kenyan tea.
Industry data shows Iran imported about 13 million kilograms of Kenyan tea in 2024, valued at roughly Sh4.26 billion.
“If we don’t export tea there, then we are affected,” Iraki said.
Kenya also exports flowers, vegetables, and meat to the Middle East, while the region serves as a key transit hub for global trade routes.
Financial analyst Wycliff Bichanga warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global oil and shipping route — could ripple across Kenya’s economy.
“Our import bill will go up because fuel makes a big percentage of our imports,” Bichanga said.
He added that rising costs for essential imports such as fertiliser, medicine, and machinery could compound economic pressure if export revenues decline at the same time.
Analysts say that if the conflict escalates further, Kenya could face a combination of higher fuel prices, disrupted exports, and economic uncertainty, underscoring how global geopolitical crises can quickly affect domestic economies.
