NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenya has lost more than Sh20 billion over the past five years due to prolonged delays in the commercialisation of genetically modified (GM) crops, agricultural scientists have warned.
A new joint study led by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) reveals that the regulatory and political bottlenecks holding back the release of three GM crops — Bt maize, Bt cotton, and the late blight-resistant potato — have cost the country an estimated $157 million (Sh20.3 billion) in forgone gains from productivity, food security, and farmer incomes.
“Kenya already has a technically and institutionally functional biotechnology regulatory system. But the years of indecision are costing the economy billions,” the AATF report notes.
Five-Year Losses Mount
The study shows that delays in adopting Bt maize alone have cost Kenyan farmers and consumers about $67 million (Sh8.6 billion).
The losses stem from lower yields and continued reliance on expensive pesticides to combat pests such as the maize stem borer and fall armyworm.
Had the crop been commercialised on time, Kenya could have produced an additional 194,000 tonnes of maize — about 25 per cent of the country’s 2022 maize imports.
AATF says that forgone production is roughly 14 times higher than the maize food aid Kenya received from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) in 2023.
Looking ahead, the Foundation projects that by 2030, Bt maize could yield $218 million (Sh28.2 billion) in total economic benefits if rollout proceeds without further delays.
Bt Cotton and Potato Also Affected
Bt cotton, Kenya’s first approved GM crop, was released in 2020, two decades after initial research began. Despite this, experts say earlier release could have doubled its benefits.
The study estimates that the five-year delay in releasing Bt cotton cost the country about $1.2 million (Sh155 million).
Malindi farmer Joseph Migwi says the crop has transformed his yields:
“I harvest about 1,000 kilos per acre now, earning roughly Sh72,000. With the old cotton, I barely got 300 kilos and earned only about Sh21,600,” he says.
For potatoes, AATF estimates that commercialising the 3R-gene Shangi — a late blight disease-resistant variety — could generate $163 million (Sh21.1 billion) for farmers and $84 million (Sh10.8 billion) for consumers over 30 years.
A five-year delay, however, would slash those benefits by nearly $90 million (Sh11.5 billion) combined.
Legal and Policy Gridlock
Despite progress in biotechnology research, Kenya’s GMO policy has been mired in court battles and political wrangling.
A 10-year ban on GMO imports between 2012 and 2022, followed by multiple legal challenges, has kept approvals on hold.
In March 2025, the Court of Appeal upheld an earlier order stopping the government from implementing its 2022 decision to lift the GMO import ban.
The ruling effectively froze all steps toward commercialisation pending the determination of ongoing cases.
Balancing Innovation and Safety
The prolonged stalemate reflects deep divisions over the safety and ethics of GMOs.
Critics cite potential risks to human health, the environment, and farmers’ economic independence, warning of issues like allergenic reactions, antibiotic resistance, and overdependence on multinational seed companies.
Proponents, however, argue that controlled adoption of GM technology could help Kenya reduce its food import bill, cut pesticide costs, and strengthen food security amid climate shocks.
“Each year of delay widens the gap between scientific progress and policy decisions,” the AATF study concludes. “The cost is no longer theoretical — it’s being felt by farmers and consumers alike.”
