NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a fresh 24-hour severe rainfall forecast, warning of heavy to very heavy downpours across several regions as flood risks rise.
In an outlook valid to Monday, February 23, the department projected widespread rainfall over the southern half of the country.
Some areas are likely to receive isolated, very heavy rainfall.
“The forecast indicates widespread rainfall across the southern parts of the country over the next 24 hours. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from moderate to heavy, with isolated very heavy (severe) rainfall in some areas,” the advisory stated.
According to the department, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, Central Highlands, including Nairobi, and the South-Eastern Lowlands.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is also likely over Western Kenya and adjoining areas, with moderate showers extending to parts of the South Coast.
However, northern and northeastern Kenya are expected to receive little or no rainfall during the same period.
Flood and Safety Concerns
The weather agency warned that the heavy rains may trigger localized flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
Other risks include reduced visibility, slippery roads, and rising river levels in flood-prone catchments.
“Residents in affected areas are advised to remain alert, avoid crossing flooded roads and rivers, and continue to follow updates issued by the Kenya Met,” the statement added.
The latest alert follows a four-day heavy rainfall advisory issued on Friday, February 20, covering 22 counties.
The department said rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, and Highlands west and east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, is expected to intensify to more than 20mm in 24 hours from February 21.
The amount may rise to more than 30mm in 24 hours between February 22 and February 24 before easing on February 25.
Counties on Alert
Counties listed as areas of concern include Migori, Nyamira, Bungoma, Kakamega, Embu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Kisii, Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Nairobi, Kericho, Bomet, Taita-Taveta, Kitui, Kwale, Mombasa, southern Tana River and parts of Kilifi.
The heavy rains are expected to begin around the Lake Victoria Basin and Rift Valley before spreading to the South-Eastern Lowlands and the Coast, particularly the South Coast.
The advisory aligns with seasonal rainfall patterns typically experienced during Kenya’s long rains period, which often strain drainage systems in urban centres and increase river discharge in western and central regions.
Authorities urged residents to exercise caution, noting that flood waters may appear downstream even where rainfall has not been heavy.
“People are advised to avoid driving through or walking in moving water or open fields. Updates will be provided promptly if there are any changes,” the department stated.
Disaster response agencies and county governments are expected to monitor river levels and drainage systems closely as the intensified rainfall continues.
