NAIROBI, Kenya – Rising global fertiliser prices could significantly increase food production costs in Kenya just as the planting season kicks off, according to a new report by the World Bank.
The October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook shows fertiliser prices climbing by 19 to 21 per cent year-on-year, defying the broader trend of easing global commodity prices.
The report attributes the surge to tight supply, export restrictions, and logistical challenges, including export curbs in China and EU sanctions affecting Belarus and Russia.
“Fertiliser prices have continued to climb, by 19 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls,” the World Bank said, projecting a 21 per cent increase over the full year.
While global energy, food, and metal prices are expected to ease in 2025 and 2026, fertiliser remains a costly outlier.
Kenya, heavily reliant on imports from China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, could see high local procurement and retail prices despite government subsidies through the National Fertiliser Support Programme, which allows farmers to access discounted inputs via the National Cereals and Produce Board.
Data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics (KBS) underscores the impact on food prices. In October 2025, tomato prices jumped 37.3 per cent, sifted maize flour rose 16.4 per cent, and loose maize grain increased 13.7 per cent compared to a year earlier.
Other staples such as sukuma wiki, spinach, cabbage, and onions also recorded double-digit price hikes.
The World Bank notes that global fertiliser markets have struggled to stabilise since supply disruptions triggered by the 2022 Ukraine conflict.
Production in major exporting countries remains constrained, and while shipping and energy costs are falling, they are not enough to offset structural shortages.
Prices are expected to ease slightly in 2026, but any spike in natural gas costs or extended export restrictions could reverse the trend.
For Kenya, where agriculture accounts for nearly one-fifth of GDP, fertiliser is one of the largest recurring input costs.
Although subsidies have lowered retail prices from Sh6,500 per 50kg bag at the 2022 peak to between Sh1,775 and Sh3,500 in selected counties, the persistent global price surge could limit the programme’s ability to shield farmers from high import costs.
