Nairobi, Kenya- The numbers are grim, and they’re about to get worse. Somalia, already grappling with widespread food insecurity, could see one million more people facing crisis-level hunger in the coming months.
Why? A looming drought and, just as crucially, a decline in funding.
The World Food Programme (WFP) broke the news on Tuesday, warning that Somalia’s hunger crisis is on track to deepen unless urgent action is taken.
Here’s what’s happening—and why the situation could spiral further out of control.
Somalia could see a million more people pushed into acute hunger with a drought forecast to hit the crop cycle, the World Food Programme said. This is in addition to the emerging crisis due to aid cuts by the Trump administration reut.rs/43oj5n2
Hunger Crisis: One Million More at Risk
Right now, about 3.4 million people in Somalia are experiencing acute food insecurity—a term that basically means they don’t know where their next meal is coming from.
That number is expected to climb to 4.4 million in the next few months, according to WFP’s Jean-Martin Bauer, head of the agency’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.
To put this into perspective, hunger in Somalia is measured on a five-phase scale:
- Phase 3 (Crisis): People skip meals and rely on emergency food aid.
- Phase 4 (Emergency): Hunger is life-threatening.
- Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine): Full-blown starvation.
Right now, much of Somalia is at Phase 3, but with worsening conditions, a shift into Phase 4 and beyond is a real possibility.
▶Drought conditions worsening in #Somalia. ▶1M more Somalis to experience acute #foodinsecurity in April-June; people facing acute food insecurity to rise from 3.4M to 4.4M. ▶Without urgent action, #Somalia could again plunge into large-scale crisis. shorturl.at/TSrpR
Drought and Climate Woes: A Repeat of 2022?
Bad news for farmers: Below-average rainfall is expected between April and June 2025, WFP reports. If that forecast holds, it will mark the third consecutive season of failed rains.
If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. The Horn of Africa suffered its worst drought in 40 years back in 2022, leading to 43,000 deaths in Somalia alone.
Crops failed, livestock perished, and food prices soared. Now, experts warn that history may be repeating itself.
And it’s not just adults suffering. WFP estimates that 1.7 million children under five could experience acute malnutrition by December 2025.
Of those, 466,000 face severe acute malnutrition, meaning they are dangerously underweight and at risk of death without intervention.
A million more people in Somalia at risk of severe hunger, as drought, conflict and high food prices disrupt farming, and increase humanitarian needs. @WFP Director of Food Security and Nutrition Analysis, @CreoleBauer, explained at the @UNGeneva briefing. #Somalia
Funding Cuts: Fewer Resources, Bigger Crisis
While climate conditions are a major problem, money (or lack of it) is another huge factor.
WFP has already cut back aid in Somalia due to funding shortages. The agency is currently assisting 820,000 people, a sharp drop from the 2.2 million it supported at the peak of the 2022 crisis.
Bauer noted that additional funding cuts from the U.S.—where aid reductions are on the table under President Donald Trump’s administration—haven’t even been factored in yet.
One million additional people in Somalia could face crisis levels of hunger in the coming months due to a forecast drought during the next crop cycle, WFP warns 🔗 trt.world/vjzk
If those cuts go through, the situation could deteriorate even faster.
The clock is ticking. With a worsening drought, shrinking resources, and political uncertainty surrounding foreign aid, Somalia is on the brink of another humanitarian catastrophe.
Aid agencies are urging immediate funding to scale up food assistance, but whether donors will step up remains to be seen.
