NAIROBI, Kenya – The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) has sought to dispel public misconceptions about El Niño, saying the climate phenomenon does not automatically lead to heavy rainfall across Kenya.
The clarification comes amid public expectations that El Niño would trigger above-normal rainfall during the October-December short rains season.
KMSA officials said many Kenyans continue to associate the phenomenon exclusively with heavy rains, a perception they linked to memories of the devastating floods of 1997.
According to the authority, El Niño conditions have been present since the April-May-June period this year, following confirmation by global climate monitoring systems that the required thresholds had been met.
The agency said the phenomenon had already influenced weather patterns before the onset of the short rains, contributing to dry conditions that led to crop failure in parts of the North Rift region.
It urged the public to rely on scientific information and weather data rather than assumptions when interpreting El Niño forecasts.
El Niño Is Not the Same As Rainfall
Meteorologists explained that El Niño refers to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is a climate phenomenon, not rainfall itself.
KMSA said the intensity of an El Niño event does not directly determine how much rain Kenya receives. Instead, rainfall patterns depend on how the phenomenon interacts with other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian Ocean, wind patterns, prevailing weather systems and local factors.
While El Niño can enhance rainfall in Kenya, the authority said this depends on whether other atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favourable.
“People should stop believing that El Niño is rainfall,” the authority said.
KMSA noted that the current event could contribute to increased rainfall from October onwards, provided other climate indicators remain supportive.
The agency also cited its October monthly forecast, saying it had accurately projected rainfall onset dates that were being observed in different parts of the country.
Kenya Has Experienced Several El Niño Episodes
KMSA sought to put the current event into historical context, noting that Kenya has experienced several El Niño episodes since the late 1990s.
According to the authority, the country recorded El Niño conditions in 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015, 2018 and 2023.
The agency said public education remained central to helping Kenyans understand how the phenomenon influences weather patterns.
It acknowledged that communication could be improved but defended its public awareness efforts, emphasising that forecasts should be interpreted using scientific evidence.
KMSA said it would continue conducting public education campaigns and sharing information based on observations and ongoing climate monitoring to help the public distinguish between El Niño conditions and rainfall forecasts.
Memories Of 2023 Floods Fuel Public Concern
Public concern about El Niño is partly driven by memories of previous flood disasters.
During the 2023 El Niño-enhanced rains, more than half a million people were displaced, farmland was destroyed, livestock died and infrastructure, including roads and public facilities, suffered extensive damage.
The experience reinforced the association between El Niño and devastating floods among many Kenyans.
However, meteorologists maintain that the phenomenon does not guarantee heavy rainfall in every region or during every event.
KMSA’s clarification underscores the importance of monitoring seasonal forecasts and local weather advisories rather than assuming that the presence of El Niño alone determines rainfall levels.
