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Gachagua’s Political Wars May Weigh Down the Opposition- Analysts

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NAIROBI, Kenya — Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s growing political battles are increasingly shaping the landscape of Kenya’s opposition politics, with analysts warning that his confrontational approach could weaken the movement’s cohesion ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Once considered a unifying figure from the Mt. Kenya region, Gachagua has recently become a polarizing presence, both within his own political circles and across the opposition spectrum.

His blunt rhetoric, often targeting rivals and allies alike, has exposed fractures that risk undermining the opposition’s bid to mount a strong challenge against President William Ruto’s administration.

Political commentator Mark Bichachi noted that Gachagua’s aggressive political posture, while appealing to loyal supporters, has alienated moderates within the opposition who are calling for a more inclusive and issue-based campaign.

“The Ex-Deputy President has a strong political base in Mt. Kenya, but his approach to leadership could backfire if it continues to sow division in a coalition that needs unity to survive,” Bichachi said.

The Star reported that internal rivalries, regional power struggles, and public controversies surrounding Gachagua’s remarks have complicated the opposition’s strategy.

His clashes with other high-ranking figures over leadership structures and resource distribution have intensified tensions, particularly as the opposition scrambles to solidify alliances ahead of 2027.

Critics argue that Gachagua’s brand of politics — grounded in ethnic loyalty and transactional patronage — risks narrowing the opposition’s national appeal. Political analyst Professor Herman Manyora told Nation that Kenya’s shifting political terrain now demands cross-ethnic coalitions built around policy issues, not tribal arithmetic.

“Gachagua’s politics worked in the past, but the 2027 election will test whether such a model can still mobilize a broad national base,” he said.

Supporters, however, defend Gachagua as a principled leader willing to “speak truth to power” within the opposition.

They insist that his firmness is necessary to keep the coalition disciplined and focused on holding the government accountable. “He’s not afraid to confront hypocrisy, even within our ranks,” said Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi. “That’s what real leadership looks like.”

Analysts warn that the opposition risks falling into disarray if it fails to manage these internal tensions. A disjointed coalition could not only lose credibility with voters but also hand President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) a stronger narrative of stability and governance continuity.

“If the opposition appears chaotic, voters may prefer to stick with the status quo, however dissatisfied they are,” said political scientist Dr. Rosebella Ochieng of the University of Nairobi.

Observers have called for the opposition to establish formal conflict resolution mechanisms and adopt a unified communication strategy to prevent public disagreements from spiraling into full-blown crises.

Experts also recommend that the coalition pivot towards issue-driven campaigns focused on economic recovery, cost of living, and national unity — themes that resonate across ethnic and regional divides.

Gachagua’s next steps could determine whether the opposition consolidates or collapses under the weight of its contradictions.

His political acumen and ability to reconcile ambition with consensus-building will be critical in shaping Kenya’s next political chapter. Whether he emerges as a unifying force or a divisive figure may well define the opposition’s fortunes heading into 2027.

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