NAIROBI, Kenya – President William Ruto’s emerging partnership with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing a defining test over who gets the deputy presidency, how government positions are shared and whether the two parties can agree on written guarantees before the 2027 General Election.
ODM has insisted that any pre-election deal with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) must reflect a 50-50 power-sharing formula, including the position of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, a demand that puts the party’s expectations at odds with Ruto’s apparent preference to retain his current deputy.
The dispute has sharpened following remarks by Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo, who urged political leaders to support Ruto without imposing conditions, prompting renewed debate within ODM over whether goodwill is enough to secure its place in the next administration.
The central question is no longer simply whether ODM will work with Ruto in 2027, but what the party expects in return and how those commitments would be guaranteed.
ODM Insists on Deputy Presidency in Any Deal
ODM leader Oburu Oginga has previously said negotiations with UDA must be based on an equal-sharing arrangement covering government positions and elective seats.
“When we form a coalition agreement with UDA, it will be based on a 50-50 share, making us stronger. We will even negotiate on the presidency; we will not leave any seat unnegotiated,” Oburu said in June.
The party’s chairperson, Gladys Wanga, has also argued that ODM should receive the deputy presidency if it agrees to support Ruto’s re-election, alongside an equitable share of Cabinet positions and protections for its electoral strongholds.
Wanga has linked the proposed arrangement to ODM’s grassroots structures and its intention to retain elected seats in areas where it has traditionally enjoyed support.
However, the demands go beyond the running mate position. ODM has also pushed for electoral zoning, under which coalition partners would avoid competing against each other in agreed constituencies and counties.
UDA has publicly resisted zoning, making the allocation of elective seats another potential obstacle to a comprehensive agreement.
Nassir Says ODM Will Negotiate on Its Own Terms
Mombasa Governor and ODM deputy party leader Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir has reiterated that the party wants the deputy presidency but said he does not personally consider the time right for him to occupy the position.
Speaking in a television interview on Wednesday, October 28, Nassir said formal pre-election coalition negotiations had not yet begun and that ODM would first establish its demands through the party’s leadership structures.
“I feel the time is not right for me to be the DP of this country. Leadership is a calling,” Nassir said, explaining that his own political journey had not initially been planned around becoming governor.
He maintained that the party would present its expectations when negotiations formally begin, leaving the eventual choice of candidate and the terms of any agreement to the political process.
His position highlights the distinction between ODM’s institutional demand for the deputy presidency and the question of which individual could eventually be nominated for the role.
The current officeholder, Kindiki, remains an important consideration for Ruto and his allies as political groups position themselves ahead of the next election. ODM’s insistence on the seat therefore opens a contest over the composition of a possible joint presidential ticket.
Omollo Rejects Conditional Support for Ruto
The immediate dispute was fuelled by Omollo, who argued that political groups should not make formal coalition agreements or power-sharing conditions a prerequisite for supporting the President.
Speaking in Homa Bay over the weekend, the Interior PS urged voters to assess Ruto based on his development record rather than demand written commitments before backing his re-election bid.
His remarks came as ODM leaders pushed for a formal agreement setting out the benefits the party expects from supporting the President in 2027.
The contrasting positions expose a disagreement over the basis of political cooperation: whether support should be offered first and negotiations follow, or whether the parties should settle the terms of their partnership before entering a joint electoral arrangement.
For ODM leaders advocating a written agreement, the concern is that support for a presidential candidate should translate into clearly defined roles in the next government. Those urging unconditional backing argue that Ruto’s record should be the principal consideration.
Joint Manifesto Committee Offers a Route to Agreement
Despite the disagreement, UDA and ODM have continued working on a joint policy platform for the next election.
The two parties have established a joint committee to develop a manifesto based on Ruto’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), while identifying areas where existing policies have fallen short and setting out priorities for the next administration.
UDA said the committee, constituted by the parties’ Joint Parliamentary Group, had made progress in drafting the coalition’s proposed commitments.
The manifesto process provides a framework for negotiating policy priorities, but it does not by itself settle the disputed allocation of senior government positions or the proposed zoning arrangement.
Those questions will require separate political negotiations if the two parties intend to formalise a pre-election coalition.
The Unresolved Question of Power Sharing
The negotiations carry implications for both parties. ODM wants its political influence reflected in the next government, while UDA must consider how a broader coalition would affect its existing leadership arrangements and the interests of its other allies.
For Ruto, the immediate challenge is reconciling ODM’s demand for the deputy presidency with the position currently occupied by Kindiki. For ODM, the challenge is securing a formal commitment on power sharing while maintaining agreement among its own leaders over the terms of cooperation.
Neither the 50-50 formula nor the allocation of the running mate position should be treated as settled until the parties announce an agreement.
With the August 2027 General Election approaching, the emerging negotiations will determine whether the broad-based political arrangement develops into a formal electoral coalition, and what conditions each party is prepared to accept in return for participating.
