NAIROBI, Kenya — President William Ruto has shifted the economic narrative, dropping specific references to Singapore’s development model and instead articulating a broad vision to transform Kenya into a “first-world country” within the next three decades, a goal he insists is “irreversible.”
Speaking at Sagana State Lodge in Nyeri, Ruto framed this ambition as a long-term, homegrown strategy rooted in major investments in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and human capital, marking a pivot from earlier emphasis on comparing Kenya to other Asian economies.
“We have the plans and the vision to change this country from a third-world country to a first-world country,” Ruto said, asserting the transition is achievable in about 20–30 years and dismissing suggestions that such talk is fanciful.
The President says his administration has remained faithful to its manifesto and the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda over the past three years.
He added that the government is committed to transforming Kenya into a first-world economy through investments in infrastructure, human capital, healthcare, agriculture, industrialisation, and job creation for young people.
“We remain committed to pushing forward with our plan to transform Kenya into a first-world economy through strategic investment in infrastructure, development of human capital, quality healthcare, agricultural production, industrialisation, and jobs for our young people,” he said.
Hosted more than 17,000 UDA grassroots leaders from Nyeri County, who were elected as polling centre officials last week, at Sagana State Lodge, Nyeri.
Ruto’s Vision: More Than a Slogan
Ruto’s blueprint, expected to be tabled in Parliament soon, outlines strategic investments totalling billions of shillings in sectors seen as foundational to growth. The plan includes:
- Major infrastructure projects — roads, rail links, and energy networks — backed by a proposed Sh5 trillion investment plan focused on leveraging domestic revenue and private capital.
- Expansion of agricultural productivity through irrigation schemes and a push toward value-added exports, intended to reduce import dependency and build net export capacity.
- Reinforcement of science, technology, research, and skills development as engines of innovation.
According to Ruto, the drive to “first-world” status is grounded not in foreign aid or debt but in Kenya’s own talents and resources, a departure from reliance on external borrowing that has characterised much of the country’s major infrastructure financing.
Current Economic Reality
While Ruto’s vision articulates aspiration, Kenya’s economy remains firmly in the developing category by objective economic indicators:
- Kenya’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is approximately $136 billion as of 2025, with a real GDP growth rate of around 4.8 percent for the year, according to the IMF.
- GDP per capita, a key measure of average income, stood near $1,800–$2,500 in recent years, far below typical levels in high-income “first-world” economies where per capita income often exceeds $40,000.
- Growth forecasts show moderate expansion, but external observers such as the World Bank have noted constraints from high public debt, weak private sector credit growth and structural headwinds, resulting in revised growth projections near 4.5% for 2025.
Economists note that Kenya’s success in achieving developed-nation status hinges on far more than headline GDP growth numbers — including sustained improvements in productivity, education outcomes, infrastructure, governance and diversification of exports.
Political Debate Over the Vision
The President’s pronouncements have drawn debate across the political spectrum.
While Ruto and allies argue that Kenya’s structural reforms will unlock higher productivity and growth, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has publicly questioned whether current performance justifies claims about imminent transformation, citing pressures on public services and economic equity.
Gachagua has suggested that some portrayals of the “first-world” goal risk overselling the pace of progress, and called for targeted reforms to strengthen education, healthcare and the business environment before such lofty benchmarks can be realistically pursued.
Gachagua publicly challenged Ruto’s earlier comparisons to Singapore, telling the President: “Don’t tell us that Singapore nonsense…You are indeed mistaking us for fools.”
What “First World” Means in Context
The term “first world” is not a formal economic classification but is often used to describe nations with high per capita incomes, industrialised economies, strong institutions, and high standards of living.
Achieving such a status would require Kenya not only to increase its GDP and per capita income but also to address broader structural shifts in industry, education, innovation and governance.
Analysts emphasise that even with optimistic growth, it could take decades of sustained structural transformation, well beyond the horizon of a single administration, for Kenya to match levels of advanced economies.
