DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — Tension is mounting among Kenyans living in Tanzania after the Kenyan High Commission in Dar es Salaam issued a rare security advisory warning of possible unrest during the country’s Independence Day commemorations on Tuesday.
The notice follows growing fears of demonstrations and political turbulence linked to the disputed October 29 general election.
The advisory comes amid escalating concerns from the Kenyan diaspora, who say they have increasingly felt targeted following President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s claims that “foreign hands” — widely interpreted as Kenyans — helped fuel post-election protests that left hundreds dead and triggered a nationwide crackdown.
Foreign missions, including those of the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel, have issued similar alerts warning citizens to avoid non-essential travel and remain vigilant as tensions build ahead of the celebrations.
On Friday, Tanzanian police declared all planned demonstrations illegal, a move that renewed fears of clashes reminiscent of the deadly unrest that followed the October polls, in which opposition leaders were detained, some barred from contesting, and protesters violently dispersed.
In its advisory, the Kenyan High Commission said Kenyans in Tanzania had raised alarm over reports of possible demonstrations and potential violence. The mission urged nationals to “shelter in place” if unrest breaks out, avoid protest zones, monitor credible news sources, and maintain reliable communication lines.
“The High Commission hopes the Commemoration of Independence Day will be observed in peace and tranquillity throughout Tanzania,” the statement said. “However, in the event that this is not the case and there are demonstrations and/or incidents of unrest, the Mission urges caution.”
Authorities say the concern is grounded in recent history. During the election-related violence, at least two Kenyans were shot dead, while several others were arrested in Arusha, Dar es Salaam and Mwanza.
Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was forced to intervene after a series of complaints that Kenyan nationals were being profiled and harassed.
President Suluhu’s remarks blaming Kenyans for destabilising the country further strained relations, with diaspora traders now anxious that political uncertainty could disrupt cross-border business, supply chains, and transport links.
The US Embassy has already imposed restrictions on the domestic movement of its staff, warning of potential nationwide curfews, an internet blackout, cancellation of ferries to Zanzibar, flight disruptions, and roadblocks.
Western governments have also increased diplomatic pressure on Tanzania over its handling of protests and its broader democratic trajectory.
The UK, US, Germany, France, Canada, Belgium, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Denmark are among the countries that have cited human rights violations, suppression of dissent and restrictions on media and civil society.
In a strongly worded statement, the US Embassy said it was “comprehensively reviewing” its relationship with Tanzania, citing repression of free speech, obstacles to investment and “disturbing violence against civilians” before and after the October election.
The Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) on Friday also raised alarm over alleged breaches of democracy, rule of law, and human rights. Tanzania has been placed on the agenda for the next CMAG meeting in March 2026, where members will decide whether to take action.
The group said its decision will depend on measures including lifting restrictions on assembly and media, establishing an inter-party dialogue platform, compensating victims of violence, and ensuring accountability for security forces and political actors implicated in abuses.
For now, Kenyans living in Tanzania remain on high alert, monitoring developments as Independence Day approaches, fearful that even peaceful celebrations could morph into political flashpoints.
