NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has announced that the 2026 March-April-May long rains season is expected to begin tapering off from mid-May across several parts of the country.
In a weather outlook statement, Acting Director Edward Muriuki said the second half of May is likely to be drier than average in many regions.
“The outlook for May indicates that the second half of the month is likely to be drier than average, implying the cessation of the March-April-May 2026 rainfall season over much of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands, and Northeastern Kenya,” Muriuki stated.
However, KMSA said rainfall is expected to continue into June in parts of the country, including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, sections of the Rift Valley, and Northwestern Kenya.
“This rainfall may be near-average to below-average,” the statement added.
Despite the expected reduction in rainfall later in the month, the weatherman warned that the first week of May could still experience heavy downpours capable of triggering flash floods, landslides, and displacement in vulnerable areas.
Muriuki cautioned that emergency response systems may remain under pressure due to repeated weather-related incidents, especially in regions already affected by flooding.
He noted that even areas forecast to receive near-average or below-average rainfall could still experience isolated but intense storms capable of causing sudden disasters.
“Localized heavy storms may still trigger sudden emergencies despite otherwise moderate monthly totals,” he warned.
According to KMSA, flood-hit areas face increased exposure to cholera, diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria due to stagnant water, contamination of water sources, and poor sanitation.
The authority further warned that continued heavy rainfall in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and parts of the Rift Valley could worsen flooding of croplands, soil erosion, and nutrient loss.
“Continued heavy rainfall is likely to worsen waterlogging, flooding of croplands, and physical damage to crops while also increasing soil erosion and nutrient leaching,” Muriuki said.
The agency added that June marks the climatological beginning of Kenya’s cold and dry season, with temperatures expected to gradually drop across much of the country starting this month.
“Several parts of the country, especially the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley and the Southeastern Lowlands, are likely to start experiencing cool and cloudy days,” Muriuki said.
KMSA projected that July will likely mark the peak of the cold season, with persistent cloud cover, fog, and occasional light rains expected in several regions.
The ongoing rainy season has brought significant rainfall across the country. Embu Meteorological Station recorded the highest monthly rainfall total at 448.9 millimetres, while Marsabit Meteorological Station registered the highest 24-hour rainfall amount at 232.4 millimetres on April 25, 2026.
