NAIROBI, Kenya – Ethiopia has ruled out the possibility of joining the East African Community (EAC) in the near future, casting doubt on the bloc’s long-standing ambition to expand its economic and political influence deeper into the Horn of Africa.
In a statement that poured cold water on speculation about Ethiopia’s accession, the country’s Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration said that joining the EAC is currently “not feasible”, citing significant economic, fiscal, and logistical concerns.
“To become a member of the EAC, we must first do a lot of research. Ethiopia is not ready, nor has it done the required groundwork,” said Samuel Gizaw, coordinator of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) at the ministry.
Speaking to reporters in Addis Ababa, Gizaw made it clear that Ethiopia is not prepared to adopt the customs union and free movement protocols that are core to the EAC’s regional integration agenda.
“Opening our market under the EAC framework would mean giving up key trade protections. It’s not feasible to allow free movement of workers and goods without taxation,” he noted, warning that the country’s customs revenue—estimated at over $17 billion annually—would be at risk under the bloc’s current revenue-sharing model.
Concerns Over EAC Framework
Ethiopia’s hesitation stems primarily from the EAC’s revenue-sharing mechanism and liberal labour market policies, which would require Addis Ababa to lower tariffs and open its borders to goods and workers from all eight member states—including recent entrants like Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“Under the current structure, joining the EAC would be detrimental to Ethiopia,” Gizaw said, echoing concerns that membership would compromise national fiscal autonomy and complicate trade policy.
Despite growing trade ties with countries in the region, no formal application for EAC membership has been submitted by Ethiopia.
Addis Ababa Rejects Previous Claims
Gizaw’s remarks come in contrast to optimistic projections by previous EAC officials. In 2024, Kenya’s then Cabinet Secretary for EAC Affairs, Peninah Malonza, claimed Ethiopia was “on the verge” of joining the bloc—comments that Ethiopian officials swiftly dismissed as “baseless.”
While Ethiopia’s business community has expressed interest in gaining broader access to the EAC market, the government insists that continental trade liberalization under the AfCFTA remains its current priority.
“Joining the EAC depends on Ethiopia’s economic cooperation strategy and internal capacity,” said Gizaw. “But we cannot commit to any timeline.”
Cautious Calculus Over Expansion
The EAC, headquartered in Arusha, Tanzania, has been aggressively pursuing regional integration, adding South Sudan, DRC, and Somalia in recent years.
The addition of Ethiopia—Africa’s second-most populous country—would significantly boost the bloc’s economic and strategic clout.
However, Ethiopia’s latest statement signals a more pragmatic and measured approach to integration, with policymakers wary of the trade-offs that come with ceding control over customs, borders, and labour mobility.
For now, Ethiopia remains on the sidelines of the EAC expansion drive, prioritizing continental partnerships and domestic readiness over rapid entry into regional blocs.
