NAIROBI, Kenya – Global life expectancy has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels, but a surge in deaths among adolescents and young adults is threatening to reverse recent health gains, according to a major new analysis published in The Lancet.
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study shows that while overall mortality has fallen across 204 countries and territories since 2020, deaths among younger populations are rising — driven by suicide, drug overdoses, alcohol use, and preventable injuries.
Researchers warn that the world is facing a “quiet crisis” among the youth, even as improvements in infectious disease control have extended lifespans worldwide.
“We are seeing worrying reversals among young people — especially in high-income countries — as preventable causes like drug misuse and mental health crises erode hard-won gains,” the report notes.
Life expectancy improves, but inequalities persist
The study estimates that global life expectancy in 2023 reached 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men — similar to levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the benefits are unevenly shared. Life expectancy remains around 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 83 years in high-income regions, underscoring deep health inequalities.
While deaths from infectious diseases such as measles, diarrhoea, and tuberculosis have declined sharply, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) — including diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and Alzheimer’s — now account for two-thirds of all global deaths.
Younger populations hit hardest
The sharpest rise in mortality was recorded among people aged 20–39 in high-income North America, where suicides, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related illnesses have surged.
Deaths among children and teenagers aged 5–19 also rose in parts of Eastern Europe, North America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa, mainly from infectious diseases and accidental injuries.
In sub-Saharan Africa, mortality rates among children aged 5–14 remain higher than previously thought, driven by respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and injuries.
Among young adult women (15–29), deaths were 61 per cent higher than earlier estimates— with maternal deaths, road crashes, and meningitis as leading causes.
From pandemics to chronic disease
The study highlights a shift in global causes of death: Covid-19, which was the top killer in 2021, fell to 20th place in 2023.
Heart disease and stroke have reclaimed the top positions, followed by chronic respiratory diseases, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal disorders.
Since 1990, deaths from heart disease, stroke, diarrhoea, and measles have dropped significantly. Yet deaths linked to diabetes, kidney disease, Alzheimer’s, and HIV/AIDS have risen.
Risk factors driving global disease
Half of the world’s disease burden stems from modifiable risk factors such as high blood pressure, obesity, smoking, and high blood sugar.
Environmental hazards like air pollution and lead exposure also continue to harm billions.
Between 2010 and 2023, global health loss linked to obesity rose by 11 per cent, drug use by 9 per cent, and high blood sugar by 6 per cent.
Mental health disorders have spiked — with anxiety cases up 63 per cent and depression up 26 per cent, fuelled by violence, sexual abuse, and social stressors.
Call for renewed focus on youth and prevention
Experts warn that reductions in international health aid could derail progress, particularly in low-income regions that depend heavily on global vaccination and maternal health programmes.
“The post-pandemic recovery should not blind policymakers to the fact that young lives are increasingly at risk,” researchers urge. “Without renewed focus on mental health, substance abuse prevention, and equitable healthcare access, the next generation could face shorter, sicker lives.”
The GBD 2023 study — covering 375 diseases and 88 risk factors across 204 countries — is one of the world’s most comprehensive health assessments, drawing on more than 310,000 data sources.
