NAIROBI, Kenya — Most parts of Kenya are expected to remain generally dry between August 13 and 20, although eight counties could receive rainfall during the period, according to the Kenya Meteorological Service.
The weather outlook indicates that Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Nyandarua and Nyeri are among the areas likely to experience rainfall.
In its weekly forecast, the Kenya Meteorological Service said dry conditions would prevail across much of the country.
“Most parts of the country are expected to be generally dry,” the service said.
The forecast also points to intermittent cool and cloudy conditions in parts of Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Nakuru, Machakos, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Marsabit and Wajir counties.
Nyandarua and Nyeri feature in both categories, meaning some areas of the two counties could receive rainfall while others experience periods of cool and cloudy weather.
The expected weather conditions are likely to bring some relief to areas that receive rainfall while most other parts of the country continue to experience predominantly dry conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Service provides weather information to support planning across sectors including agriculture, transport, health and disaster management.
Counties urged to prepare for El Niño rains
The latest weekly forecast comes amid growing calls for counties considered vulnerable to flooding to strengthen preparedness ahead of the anticipated El Niño rains during the October-November-December (OND) short-rains season.
Homa Bay, Kisumu and Nakuru have been identified among counties requiring heightened preparedness, with water levels in several lakes already rising.
The affected water bodies include Lake Victoria, Lake Turkana, Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria, Lake Elementaita, Lake Naivasha and Lake Nakuru.
Weather experts have warned that the combination of a strong El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could result in heavier-than-normal rainfall and an early onset of the short-rains season.
The increased rainfall could raise the risk of flash floods, particularly in areas with already elevated water levels.
Misiani Zachary, a Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action Expert at the Kenya Meteorological Department, urged vulnerable counties to activate their anticipatory measures and prepare for worst-case scenarios.
“The two signals, the strong El Nino and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, could enhance the rainfall, triggering an early onset of the season which could begin with torrential heavy rainfall resulting in flash floods over different parts of the country,” Misiani said.
He was speaking during a webinar on the potential impact of the anticipated rains in Kenya.
Rising lake levels raise concern
Meteorologists are particularly concerned about the possibility of water backflow in some lakes, which could worsen flooding and force communities living near affected shorelines to relocate.
Misiani identified Lake Victoria and Lake Naivasha among the water bodies that could experience the effects of rising water levels and possible backflow.
The warning highlights the importance of early preparation by county governments and communities before the peak of the anticipated rainy season.
Authorities have increasingly promoted anticipatory action as a way of reducing the impact of extreme weather by allowing vulnerable communities to prepare before floods and other disasters occur.
For now, however, the immediate national outlook remains largely dry, with rainfall concentrated in parts of western Kenya and the central highlands between August 13 and 20.
