NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenya Meteorological Service has forecast rainfall across several parts of the country this week as the October–December 2026 short rains season gets underway.
The weather agency said light to moderate rainfall is expected in parts of 44 counties, with isolated storms likely in some areas of the northeast and coastal regions.
The forecast comes as Kenya enters the October–December short rains season, which typically begins as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrates southwards across East Africa, increasing moisture and convection.
Storms May Trigger Flash Floods
The Kenya Meteorological Service said isolated storms are expected over parts of Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit, as well as Tana River and Kilifi counties.
The storms could result in flash flooding in affected areas, particularly where rainfall is intense over a short period.
Residents in the affected counties have been urged to remain alert to changing weather conditions and take precautions in areas prone to flooding.
Strong Winds Expected In Three Counties
The meteorological agency has also forecast strong southerly to southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots, equivalent to 12.5 metres per second, over parts of Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit counties.
The strong winds could affect travel and outdoor activities in exposed areas.
Counties To Receive Rainfall
Light to moderate rainfall is expected in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
What Drives Kenya’s Short Rains?
The October–December rainfall season is influenced by several climate and atmospheric systems.
The Kenya Meteorological Service said the duration and intensity of rainfall during October are influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and intraseasonal weather systems.
Other factors include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and subtropical high-pressure systems.
The agency said these interacting weather systems influence moisture availability, convection and rainfall patterns across the country during the short rains season.
