NAIROBI, Kenya – Opposition leader Raila Odinga made a surprise appearance at Parliament Buildings on Thursday morning, just before a critical Senate meeting on Kenya’s next revenue sharing framework.
Odinga arrived shortly after 9:30 a.m., accompanied by a close group of allies, and walked into the Senate Chamber where the Finance and Budget Committee had convened a high-level breakfast meeting.
The session brought together all Senators to deliberate on the contentious Fourth Basis Revenue Sharing Formula, which will guide how national revenue is divided among Kenya’s 47 counties from the 2025/26 to 2029/30 financial years.
Odinga’s presence, though not on the official programme, underscored the high political stakes involved.
A longtime advocate of devolution and equitable resource allocation, the former Prime Minister’s attendance signaled both interest and concern over proposals that have sparked intense debate across the country.
The formula at the heart of the discussions was developed by the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA), which proposed a model allocating funds based on population (42%), equal share (22%), poverty levels (14%), land size (9%), and income distance (13%).
The CRA also included a stabilization clause to ensure no county receives less than its 2024/25 allocation.
But the Senate Finance and Budget Committee has rejected the CRA’s model.
In a report tabled by its chair, Mandera Senator Ali Roba, the committee warned that up to 31 counties could suffer funding cuts under the new formula.
Instead, it has recommended anchoring the current Ksh. 387.42 billion county allocation as a baseline, increasing the basic share to 35%, retaining population at 45%, and removing income distance altogether—citing unreliable data.
The committee also dismissed the CRA’s stabilization approach as arbitrary and instead proposed a “scientifically derived deviation method” to manage funding transitions in a fairer, more predictable way.
The Senate’s final position will play a pivotal role in shaping the financial future of county governments.
If adopted, the new formula will influence everything from healthcare and education funding to infrastructure and local economic development over the next five years.
The debate has already begun to fracture political alignments, with leaders from less-populated or economically marginalized counties warning of increased inequalities, while others argue that the CRA’s model better reflects current realities.
Odinga did not address the media during his visit, but sources close to him indicated he is closely monitoring the process and may weigh in publicly in the coming days.
