DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — Tanzania heads to the polls on October 29, but few expect the ballot to deliver genuine competition.
The ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has so thoroughly consolidated its power that many observers describe the exercise as a mere formality rather than a democratic contest.
For the opposition, this election is less about campaigning and more about survival. Chadema, the country’s strongest opposition party, was barred from the race after refusing to sign the electoral code of conduct.
Its leader, Tundu Lissu, is facing treason charges after demanding electoral reforms, a move civil society groups have condemned as politically motivated. ACT-Wazalendo, another key opposition force, saw its presidential hopeful struck out on technical grounds.
In their absence, a smaller party, Chama Cha Ukombozi wa Umma (Chaumma), has emerged as the main challenger. Yet analysts argue its sudden prominence is orchestrated to create the appearance of competition.
Political scientist Dr. Aikande Kwayu told reporters, The ruling party understands the optics of an uncontested ballot, so it is elevating a weaker player to mask the lack of real choice.
Government officials point to three electoral bills passed in late 2023: the National Electoral Commission Act, the Elections Bill, and amendments to the Political Parties Act, as evidence of reform. These laws created a new electoral commission and introduced vetting of commissioners.
But critics say the reforms are cosmetic. The president still appoints the commission chair, and the executive retains decisive influence. According to legal analyst Fatma Karume, What we have is a recycled framework dressed as reform. The power dynamics remain unchanged.
Voter turnout has been falling steadily, with just 50.7 P.c of voters casting ballots in 2020. Analysts predict an even lower figure in 2025, reflecting growing apathy.
Freedom House, the global watchdog, has downgraded Tanzania from “Partly Free” to “Not Free,” citing shrinking civic space, harassment of journalists, and state pressure on activists.
Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous archipelago, mirrors the mainland’s trajectory. President Hussein Mwinyi of CCM is widely expected to secure another term amid fragmented opposition. Since the death of veteran opposition leader Seif Shariff Hamad in 2021, no strong counterweight has emerged.
International bodies have voiced concern. The European Parliament has warned that Tanzania risks undermining its reputation as a stable democracy in East Africa. The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights has also raised alarms over what it calls a systematic erosion of freedoms.
With victory all but guaranteed for CCM, the real story lies in what comes next. Analysts predict increasing factionalism within CCM itself, as internal rivalries replace electoral competition. Meanwhile, public frustration may deepen if voters feel locked out of meaningful political participation.
Civil society leaders warn of long-term damage. As activist Maria Sarungi Tsehai explained, the danger is not just in one election. It is in normalizing a system where choice is an illusion, and democracy becomes a ritual stripped of meaning.
For Tanzanians, October’s election may confirm what many already know: power remains firmly in CCM’s hands, and the democratic road ahead looks narrower than ever.
