NAIROBI, Kenya- Kenya is facing an increased risk of unusually wet conditions in the final months of 2026 as the El Niño weather phenomenon strengthens, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the event could become very strong and continue influencing global weather patterns into early 2027.
In its latest update published on Thursday, September 3, the WMO said El Niño is firmly established and is expected to intensify further in the coming months, potentially reaching very strong levels before peaking towards the end of the year.
The agency put the likelihood of the phenomenon persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100 per cent.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
For Kenya, the warning comes as the Greater Horn of Africa prepares for the October-December rainfall season, one of the most important periods of the year for agriculture, livestock and water resources.
The WMO said the October-December period contributes up to 70 per cent of annual rainfall in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.
A regional outlook issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has forecast a greater likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions across the Greater Horn during the final quarter of 2026.
The outlook is particularly significant for Kenya.
ICPAC has forecast a 90 per cent chance of enhanced rainfall over north-eastern Kenya, while seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 millimetres is considered likely in parts of central Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin.
The additional rainfall could bring benefits, particularly by improving pasture and water availability for livestock and supporting agricultural production. But authorities also face increased risks from excessive rainfall.
According to the WMO’s regional assessment, heavy rains could trigger flooding, destroy crops, damage roads and other critical infrastructure and disrupt access to health and nutrition services. Increased rainfall can also raise the risk of water- and vector-borne diseases.
Kenya’s eastern regions are also expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, with the highest probabilities extending across eastern Kenya and neighbouring parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea.
The combination of El Niño and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole is another factor being monitored by forecasters.
WMO expects the positive IOD to develop during the September-November period, potentially modifying the effects of El Niño in different regions.
The latest warning therefore places renewed emphasis on early preparation in Kenya, particularly in flood-prone communities, agriculture, water management, health and disaster response.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources. We have no time to lose.”
Global Warning
Beyond East Africa, the strengthening El Niño is expected to alter rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world.
WMO forecasts show above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September-November 2026, while the strong Pacific warming is expected to contribute to significant changes in rainfall patterns.
Sea temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are already exceptionally high.
The Niño 3.4 index reached about 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average in weekly measurements between late July and mid-August, while temperatures beneath the ocean surface were more than 8°C above average in some areas.
The WMO warned that a very strong El Niño can increase the likelihood of extreme weather, including floods, drought and extreme heat, although its effects will not be the same everywhere.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world was entering a period of heightened extreme-weather risk as the phenomenon strengthens.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the agency was intensifying preparedness and early-warning efforts with national meteorological services around the world.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon rather than something caused by climate change.
However, WMO said its impacts occur against a background of rising global temperatures, making reliable forecasts and early action increasingly important.
The agency said governments, humanitarian organisations and climate-sensitive sectors should use the available forecasts to prepare for potential disruptions to agriculture, health, energy and water resources.
