NAIROBI, Kenya- Suba North Member of Parliament Millie Odhiambo has raised questions over what she described as the political messages emerging from TIFA Research’s latest opinion poll, particularly as parties and leaders position themselves for possible 2027 election alliances.
In a statement on Friday, Odhiambo said opinion polls are often sponsored and can be used to communicate messages beyond the numbers presented.
However, she did not identify any sponsor of the TIFA survey or present evidence that its findings had been influenced.
“The polls communicate very strong political messages,” she said, adding that the only person who should celebrate the findings was the sponsor.
TIFA’s report lists TIFA Research as the survey’s funding source.
The poll was conducted through face-to-face household interviews with 2,036 adults across all 47 counties between October 26 and November 5, with a national margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 per cent.
Party rankings draw scrutiny
Odhiambo questioned the significance of UDA ranking first at 25 per cent, Linda Mwananchi Movement/TEP second at 17 per cent and ODM third at 10 per cent.
The MP said the sequence stood out amid continuing debate over political negotiations and coalition-making ahead of next year’s General Election.
The poll also placed DCP at nine per cent, Wiper Patriotic Front at five per cent and Jubilee at four per cent.
Twenty-six per cent of respondents said they did not identify with any political party, while two per cent gave no response.
Oburu, Babu tie in Luo leadership graphic
Odhiambo also questioned the presentation of the Luo community leadership results, where Oburu Odinga and Babu Owino each recorded 28 per cent in the chart.
The graphic was based on respondents who first said their ethnic community had a leader, with a sample of 987 people across the communities assessed.
It did not provide a full breakdown of all other Luo political figures who may have been mentioned by respondents.
The poll separately showed DCP Leader Rigathi Gachagua receiving 69 per cent in the Kikuyu community-leadership question, a result that should not be directly compared with presidential preference ratings because the two questions used different respondent groups and measured different perceptions.
Ruto, Sifuna tied nationally
Odhiambo further questioned President William Ruto’s rating in Nyanza and the national tie between the President and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
The survey placed President Ruto and Sifuna at 31 per cent each nationally when respondents were asked whom they would like to win the 2027 presidential election.
In Nyanza, President Ruto recorded 35 per cent against Sifuna’s 33 per cent.
For Gachagua, the presidential-preference table placed him at four per cent nationally, one per cent in Central Rift and 11 per cent in the Mt Kenya zone.
Sifuna led the Mt Kenya presidential-preference column at 32 per cent, while President Ruto and Gachagua were tied at 11 per cent.
TIFA said its findings reflect public opinion during the fieldwork period rather than a prediction of the eventual election outcome.
The results are likely to fuel fresh debate over opposition unity, the UDA-ODM relationship, and Linda Mwananchi’s emerging influence ahead of 2027.
