NAIROBI, Kenya — Water, Sanitation and Irrigation Cabinet Secretary Eric Mugaa has warned residents living along the River Tana in Tana River and Garissa counties to move to higher ground ahead of expected heavy rains.
Mugaa said the projected rainfall associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole could push the Seven Forks dams to their storage limits, increasing the risk of flooding downstream.
The Seven Forks cascade comprises Masinga, Kamburu, Gitaru, Kindaruma and Kiambere dams along the Tana River system.
Dams could reach storage limits
Speaking during an interview on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, Mugaa said the dams could spill if rainfall reaches the projected levels.
He warned that communities, homes, livestock and livelihoods located along vulnerable sections of the River Tana could be exposed to increased water volumes.
Mugaa explained that dams are designed to withstand major flood events and are equipped with spillways that allow excess water to be released safely once reservoirs reach capacity.
However, he said the configuration of the dams means simultaneous releases could significantly increase downstream river flows.
‘We risk flooding downstream’
Mugaa said the greatest danger would arise when several dams in the cascade fill up and release water at the same time.
“The challenge we risk is that when our dams become full, and water starts passing through the spillways, particularly where dams are arranged in series with one downstream of another, all that water eventually returns to the river course.”
He said the risk becomes greater where the River Tana reaches flatter terrain and the river channel cannot accommodate the volume of water released from the dams.
“We therefore risk flooding downstream, especially in areas where the terrain becomes flatter as the river reaches its mature stage,” he noted.
The CS said residents in flood-prone areas should therefore take precautionary measures and relocate to safer ground where necessary.
Government urges early evacuation
Mugaa said the immediate priority was to ensure that water released from the dams is managed safely while protecting communities living downstream.
The warning is particularly significant for settlements along vulnerable stretches of the Tana River in Garissa and Tana River counties, where flooding can affect homes, livestock, farms and other livelihoods.
The CS urged residents not to wait until water levels rise before moving to safer areas.
Government eyes more water storage
Beyond the immediate flood threat, Mugaa said Kenya needs to significantly expand its water-storage capacity to manage periods of excessive rainfall and conserve water for use during drought.
He said the government was considering the National Infrastructure Fund as a potential source of financing for major water-storage projects.
According to Mugaa, constructing a single mega dam could cost between Sh20 billion and Sh40 billion.
He said additional storage would help the country capture excess water during periods of heavy rainfall instead of allowing it to cause flooding and then losing it downstream.
Canal project planned to divert Tana waters
Mugaa also disclosed that the State Department for Irrigation was pursuing a canal designed to divert part of the River Tana into an inland swamp.
He described the unfinished project as an important long-term intervention for reducing flood risks along the river.
The government has previously identified the Rahole Canal as a flood-control project intended to divert water from the Tana River into the hinterland.
Bura canal could help manage rising water
Mugaa further said the expanded Bura Irrigation Scheme has a canal capable of carrying approximately 11,000 litres of water per second.
The canal could be opened if water levels become critical, providing another avenue for managing excess water from the river system.
The CS said the immediate focus remained on safely managing expected water releases, while the government pursues larger infrastructure projects to strengthen flood protection and water storage.
Recent government preparations have also focused on other water infrastructure ahead of the forecast El Niño/IOD rains. Mugaa has said the Mwache Dam project in Kwale is more than 85 per cent complete, with the main dam at 92pc, as authorities prepare for the next phase of the project.
