NAIROBI, Kenya – The United Nations has warned that a rapidly intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon could become the strongest recorded since global monitoring began four decades ago, raising the risk of extreme heat, floods and drought across the world.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday that El Niño is expected to strengthen to a “very strong” event in the coming months and is almost certain to persist through February.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could surpass the strongest events recorded since systematic monitoring began.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began,” Saulo told reporters in Geneva.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It alters atmospheric circulation, affecting rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
The WMO said the current event is expected to peak towards the end of 2026, although its effects on global temperatures and weather could continue well into 2027.
The agency said the exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean was already driving the intensification of El Niño, with weekly sea-surface temperature readings between late July and mid-August reaching between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average.
In some parts of the Pacific, temperatures below the ocean surface were more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August.
The WMO said there was an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent” that El Niño would continue through February.
Risk of extreme weather
The United Nations warned that the strengthening phenomenon could worsen weather extremes in different parts of the world.
“Big impacts” are expected on rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to the WMO.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world was entering increasingly dangerous climate territory.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” Guterres said.
“The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
Guterres called for greater preparedness and faster climate action to protect communities from the worsening impacts of extreme weather.
Saulo warned that the current El Niño could have serious economic consequences, particularly for communities and sectors that depend heavily on predictable weather conditions.
“This exceptional El Niño… has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” she said.
She urged disaster management agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy and water, to prepare for worsening conditions.
Global weather disruption
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with La Niña, its cooler counterpart, with periods of neutral conditions occurring in between.
Major El Niño events can trigger drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupt monsoon patterns in India and alter rainfall across tropical regions.
The WMO forecast for September to November indicates a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas.
The agency also expects rainfall patterns associated with a strong El Niño to emerge across several regions.
The 2023-24 El Niño contributed to record global temperatures, with 2024 becoming the warmest year ever recorded.
Saulo said the possibility of another temperature record could not be ruled out.
“We should not be surprised if this record is broken,” she said.
Although El Niño itself is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by human-induced climate change, scientists say global warming can amplify its temperature impacts.
The combination of an exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean and a planet already heated by greenhouse-gas emissions could therefore produce more severe weather extremes.
The WMO has classified the current El Niño as potentially reaching the highest of its four intensity categories — very strong — underscoring the need for governments and communities to prepare for its effects.
