NAIROBI, Kenya- Disaster risk management expert Zachary Misiani has warned that Kenya’s biggest challenge ahead of the expected El Niño rains is not the rainfall itself but the country’s level of preparedness.
Speaking on Spice FM’s The Situation Room, Misiani said heavy rainfall does not automatically have to result in deaths, displacement and widespread destruction if authorities and communities act on early warnings.
“The problem is not the rainfall but how prepared we are,” Misiani said.
The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority has forecast above-normal rainfall across much of the country during the October–December short-rains season.
Misiani said the expected rains could trigger riverine floods, flash floods, urban flooding, lake backflow, thunderstorms, lightning, strong winds, large ocean waves and dam overflows.
Communities living near major rivers, lakes and poorly drained urban areas face some of the highest risks.
Riverine flooding could affect settlements along the Tana, Athi and Ewaso Ng’iro rivers, as well as communities within the Lake Victoria Basin.
Counties facing risks around Lake Victoria include Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori. Rising water levels in Rift Valley lakes, including Naivasha, Nakuru, Baringo and Bogoria, also require close monitoring.
Nairobi, Mombasa, Narok and Kisumu are among the urban centres vulnerable to flooding when heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage systems.
Misiani said national and county governments should identify households living in high-risk areas and move them to safer ground before flooding begins.
Authorities should also clear drainage systems, monitor rivers and dams, map evacuation routes, inspect roads and bridges and position emergency supplies in areas likely to be affected.
Misiani also called for early warning information to be distributed widely and translated into different languages so that communities can understand the risks and take action.
“Everyone should have access to early warning information,” the disaster management expert said.
Government administrators, media outlets, mobile phone messages and community networks should be used to distribute the alerts, according to Misiani.
The warning follows deadly floods during Kenya’s March–May 2026 long-rains season. By May 3, flooding had affected 27 counties, killed 122 people and affected more than 42,000 others.
The Ministry of Health has since activated an El Niño contingency plan focusing on disease surveillance, emergency response, safe water, sanitation and continuity of essential health services.
Misiani said timely planning and coordinated action could reduce the effects of the expected rains even though the El Niño weather pattern cannot be stopped.
