NAIROBI, Kenya- The Government has identified 18 counties at high risk of El Niño-related impacts as it steps up preparations ahead of an expected increase in rainfall from October 2026.
According to a government risk assessment prepared by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), the affected areas face varying risks including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, displacement and infrastructure damage.
The assessment follows forecasts by the Kenya Meteorological Service indicating a high likelihood of a strong El Niño event developing later this year.
The weather service has projected an 81 per cent probability of a very strong El Niño and a 97 per cent probability that its effects will persist into early 2027.
The Government said the identified counties have been prioritised in emergency preparedness and response planning based on their exposure to the projected weather-related hazards.
Counties identified as high risk
In the Coast region, the Government has identified Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale as vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage. Some communities could also face displacement.
In the Lake Basin, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori have been identified as areas that could experience flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
The Government has also classified Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu as high-risk urban centres. The main risks identified in the three cities include flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruption of essential services.
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok face risks including drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity.
In North Eastern, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera have been identified as vulnerable to drought, water shortages, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity.
The Government said additional areas could be added to the risk assessment if further assessments establish that they are vulnerable to El Niño-related impacts.
Emergency teams placed on alert
The National Emergency Multi-Agency teams and county emergency response teams have been placed on high alert as preparations intensify.
The teams are also being sensitised on their respective roles and responsibilities ahead of the expected weather conditions.
The Government’s preparedness plan covers several possible impacts, including flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, displacement and damage to infrastructure.
The latest forecast follows an earlier Kenya Meteorological Service outlook that showed El Niño becoming the dominant ENSO category during the second half of 2026, with El Niño conditions historically associated with increased rainfall over parts of Kenya.
The Government has therefore moved to identify vulnerable locations before the onset of the October-November-December rainfall season.
Officials are expected to continue monitoring weather forecasts and updating the list of high-risk areas as new information becomes available.
