NAIROBI, Kenya- President William Ruto and Linda Mwananchi Movement Party Leader Edwin Sifuna are tied as Kenyans’ preferred winners of the 2027 presidential election, with each attracting 31% support in a new TIFA Research survey.
The poll, conducted between October 26 and November 5 among 2,036 adults across all 47 counties, puts Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka in third place at 9%, followed by Jubilee Party Leader Fred Matiang’i at 5% and DCP Leader Rigathi Gachagua at 4%.
Fifteen per cent of respondents were undecided, while 2% said none of the aspirants and another 2% gave no response.
TIFA said the survey measured whom respondents would prefer to win the 2027 presidential election, whether or not they had voted before or intended to vote in future.
The results mark a sharp rise for Sifuna, who stood at 15% in TIFA’s June survey, while President Ruto was at 24%.
Sifuna leads in Western, Ruto strongest in Northern
President Ruto’s support was highest in Northern Kenya at 62%, Central Rift at 59% and the Coast at 40%.
Sifuna recorded his strongest ratings in Western Kenya at 55%, Nairobi at 39%, the Coast at 36%, Nyanza at 33% and Mt Kenya at 32%.
Kalonzo’s support was concentrated in Lower Eastern, where he scored 55%, while Gachagua posted his highest rating in Mt Kenya at 11%.
TIFA said the tie between President Ruto and Sifuna comes as support for several other possible opposition candidates continues to decline.
The survey showed Kalonzo falling from 13% in June to 9%, Matiang’i from 14% to 5% and Gachagua from 7% to 4%.
UDA regains party lead
On party affiliation, United Democratic Alliance regained the lead with 25%, up from 17% in June.
Linda Mwananchi Movement/TEP emerged second with 17%, while ODM dropped to 10% from 20% in June.
DCP was placed fourth at 9%, Wiper Patriotic Front at 5% and Jubilee at 4%.
The survey found that 26% of respondents did not identify with any political party, while 2% did not respond.
UDA was strongest in Northern Kenya at 60% and Central Rift at 56%.
Linda Mwananchi Movement/TEP led in Western Kenya at 40% and Nairobi at 26%, while ODM remained strongest in Nyanza at 33%.
TIFA said the figures suggest Linda Mwananchi’s rise has coincided with a significant decline in ODM support.
Kindiki preferred as Ruto running mate
Among respondents who preferred President Ruto to win the 2027 election, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki was the most preferred running mate at 55%.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga came second at 12%, followed by ODM Deputy Party Leader Hassan Joho at 9%.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Oburu Odinga and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi each received 4%, while 9% of President Ruto’s supporters remained undecided.
The survey also found that opposition supporters remain divided on when a joint presidential ticket should be announced.
Forty-five per cent preferred early 2027, 35% wanted it named before the end of this year, and 16% favoured a decision between April and June 2027.
Still, 57% of opposition supporters said it was very likely that leaders in the Linda Mwananchi Movement and the Ukombozi opposition group would unite ahead of the election, while another 22% said unity was somewhat likely.
TIFA said the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points.
It cautioned that the findings reflect public opinion during the fieldwork period and could shift as the country moves closer to the August 2027 General Election.
