NAIROBI, Kenya- Nairobi is among counties expected to receive above-average rainfall this October, with Kenya Met forecasting heavy downpours in several parts of the country.
The outlook places the Coast and parts of northeastern Kenya among the areas with the highest likelihood of receiving more rain than usual for the month.
Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera fall within this category, alongside parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir.
“Heavy rainfall events are expected in several parts of the country,” the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority said in its October forecast.
The monthly outlook points to widespread rainfall, although the probability of above-average totals varies across regions.
Reports on the forecast also indicate that heavy downpours could trigger flooding in vulnerable areas.
Nairobi and central Kenya set for above-average rain
Above-average rainfall is expected in Nairobi and the neighbouring counties of Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado.
Makueni, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri are also in this category.
The same outlook applies to parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok, as well as sections of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir.
The distinctions matter for counties appearing in more than one category. Different parts of the same county may have different rainfall prospects, rather than a single outlook applying uniformly across the entire county.
Coast and Mandera have higher rainfall probabilities
The forecast gives Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera a higher probability of above-average rainfall.
Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir share that outlook.
This describes the likelihood of rainfall exceeding the usual October average.
It does not necessarily mean these counties will record the largest rainfall amounts nationally or experience continuous rain throughout the month.
Western Kenya and Rift Valley also expect rain
Near-average to above-average rainfall is forecast for much of western Kenya and sections of the Rift Valley.
The counties listed are Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi and Nyamira.
Others are Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot, together with parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia.
These areas could receive rainfall close to their usual October totals or exceed those levels.
Heavy downpours remain a concern
Beyond the expected monthly totals, Kenya Met’s warning highlights the possibility of individual heavy rainfall events across several regions.
A monthly outlook describes the broader pattern expected over the month. It does not pinpoint the dates, locations or intensity of every downpour.
Residents planning travel, farming and outdoor activities will therefore need to follow shorter-term forecasts for more specific information on conditions in their areas.
