NAIROBI, Kenya — Kenya is facing heightened risks of floods, drought, food insecurity and displacement as forecasters monitor the strengthening of an El Niño climate pattern expected to influence weather conditions into 2027.
The warning comes as the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) scales up anticipatory action in vulnerable countries, urging governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare for climate shocks before they escalate into full-blown emergencies.
WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said El Niño posed a major threat to communities already struggling with food insecurity and urged early intervention to protect lives and livelihoods.
“El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” Skau said.
“The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods. Severe floods and droughts can quickly push communities from coping to crisis.”
The agency says it is moving towards anticipatory action by positioning cash, food stocks and logistical support before extreme weather strikes, rather than waiting until affected communities require emergency assistance.
Kenya maps vulnerable regions
Kenya is particularly exposed to the effects of El Niño because the climate pattern can produce significantly different impacts across the country.
Its 2026 climate outlook indicated that the probability of El Niño development was increasing through the year, with the phenomenon projected to become the leading ENSO category during parts of the second half of 2026.
A national risk assessment has identified several regions and urban centres that could face heightened exposure to weather-related hazards.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu are among the urban areas considered vulnerable, particularly because heavy rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems and disrupt transport, businesses and essential services.
Along the Coast, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale face risks including flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage.
In the Lake Basin, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori could face flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
The Rift Valley presents a more complicated risk profile. Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok could experience a combination of flash floods, landslides and drought-related pressures, including livestock losses and food insecurity.
In the North Eastern region, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera remain particularly vulnerable to drought, water shortages, deteriorating pasture and livestock losses because of their dependence on pastoral livelihoods.
The differing risks demonstrate why preparedness cannot rely on a single national response. A weather pattern that produces excessive rainfall in one part of the country can intensify water shortages in another.
Kenya has painful El Niño experience
Kenya’s experience with previous El Niño events highlights the potential consequences.
The 1997–1998 El Niño caused widespread flooding, deaths, displacement and extensive damage to roads, bridges and homes. More recent episodes, including the 2015–2016 and 2023–2024 events, also brought significant disruption.
The 2023 floods affected more than 750,000 people, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department, with damage reported across agriculture, infrastructure, health and other sectors.
The concern is therefore not simply how much rain falls, but whether communities and infrastructure can absorb the impact.
Infrastructure remains critical
Experts have long warned that flooding becomes a humanitarian disaster when heavy rainfall meets weak drainage, poor sanitation, vulnerable settlements and inadequate infrastructure.
In rapidly growing urban areas, settlements located in flood-prone zones can face particularly severe consequences when drainage systems are overwhelmed.
Rural communities face different challenges, including washed-out roads, damaged bridges, inaccessible health facilities, livestock losses and disrupted markets.
This makes investment in drainage, roads, flood-control infrastructure and early-warning systems a central part of climate preparedness.
Early action could reduce losses
Humanitarian agencies are increasingly turning to anticipatory action, which seeks to deliver assistance before a forecast hazard causes widespread damage.
Measures being considered or implemented include pre-positioning food and medical supplies, clearing drainage channels, strengthening early-warning systems and expanding cash-transfer programmes for vulnerable households.
Early warnings can also give farmers and pastoralists time to move livestock, protect assets and adjust agricultural activities before extreme conditions arrive.
Kenya’s meteorological service already provides county-level forecasts designed to support disaster management, agricultural planning and other local preparedness efforts.
The challenge is ensuring that forecasts reach communities in time and that authorities have the resources to act on them.
With the expected effects of the developing El Niño potentially extending into 2027, the coming months will be critical for Kenya and other vulnerable countries.
For Kenya, preparedness will require coordination between national and county governments, meteorological agencies, humanitarian organisations, communities and development partners.
The priority is to ensure that a predictable climate shock does not become a preventable humanitarian disaster.
